Africa Economics Update Higher eurobond yields show shifting sentiment The high yield of Ghana’s new eurobond provides yet more evidence that market sentiment towards African dollar debt has turned. Equity and currency markets, meanwhile, performed poorly across the... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s medium-term budget still looks too hopeful The South African government’s newly-revised macroeconomic forecasts announced in today’s medium-term budget policy statement seem more plausible than those in February’s budget. Even so, the... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda hikes rates as inflation spikes, policy to stay tight The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike its policy interest rate by a further 100bp, to 17.0%, today appears to be a response to the sharp pick-up in inflation in September. The bulk of the monetary... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Data released today showed that Nigerian inflation continued its slow grind higher last month, reaching 9.4% y/y, its strongest rate in over two years. Given the previous slide in the naira and the... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Aug.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both weaker than the figures reported last month. The downbeat data support our view that growth will remain weak over the... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Governance improves in key economies The latest Mo Ibrahim Index reports that progress on improving governance in Sub-Saharan Africa is stalling at a regional level. Some states, however, have continued to make progress – including many... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
