Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies take a beating on China worries The impact of China’s renminbi devaluation is continuing to be felt across emerging markets. The Kazakh central bank today scrapped its trading band for the tenge, which subsequently fell by over 20%... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in South Africa ticked up to 5.0% in July, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation and a weak rand mean that the Reserve Bank is likely to... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Defending currencies ultimately futile Many African central banks are running down scarce foreign exchange reserves in a doomed effort to defend overvalued currencies from painful adjustments. But with commodity prices likely to remain... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s figures show that Nigerian inflation remained at 9.2% y/y in July, but we still expect that inflation will pick up later in the year. FX restrictions and the eventual weakening of the naira... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Jun.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were slightly above consensus, but still point to a contraction in the economically-crucial sector. Firms have failed to benefit from a weaker rand, another sign... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ugandan rate hike adds to African tightening cycle The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike interest rates by another 150bp today was an effort to support the flagging currency. The hike is yet another example of Sub-Saharan Africa’s escalating... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest commodity collapse Of the major EMs, the biggest losers from the most recent fall in commodity prices have been Russia, Nigeria and Colombia, while the biggest winners have been Korea, India and Thailand. A similar... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2015) The falls in commodity prices over the past year have caused consumer spending to slow in many commodity-exporting countries, with Russia and Brazil being hit particularly hard. Only consumers in... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rate hold does not signify end of tightening cycle Today’s decision by the Kenyan MPC to leave interest rates at 11.50% will give the economy a bit of breathing room, but we still expect that currency weakness will lead the CBK to hike rates to 13.00%... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: The dangers of ‘feed bottle federalism’ The slowly-unfolding budgetary crisis affecting Nigeria’s 36 state-level governments poses some risk to the central governmnet’s fiscal health. But, more importantly, it also exemplifies the flaws in... 5th August 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Another bad month for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies suffered more heavy losses in the past month and while further big falls are hard to justify over a medium term horizon, there could be more downside in the near term... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still subdued, Central Europe a bright spot July’s PMIs, published earlier today, showed that manufacturers across much of the emerging world struggled last month. The one bright spot was Central Europe, where the surveys improved in spite of... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained stable at a relatively strong 51.4 in July, providing a rare piece of good news for the economy. But we still doubt that manufacturing will be a significant... 3rd August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Jun.) & Kenya Inflation (Jul.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in June was the result of rising exports, rather than just weak import demand. This is a positive sign for the economy, which has... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
