Africa Economics Update Kenya: Government audit puts focus on corruption An audit of government expenditure provides yet more evidence of widespread corruption in Kenya. But while the new findings make for grim reading, the existence of the report – and others like it – is... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Russia and Brazil EM growth slowed to its weakest pace since 2009 in May. But the aggregate data have been pulled down by problems in Russia and Brazil. In contrast, other parts of the EM world have seen a pick-up in... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed won’t spark EM sell-off today, but data may add to volatility We do not expect any fireworks in EM financial markets after today’s FOMC statement, but with policymakers likely to reiterate that the timing of “lift-off” will be data dependent our upbeat view on... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack African interest rates begin rise The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) finally began its long-awaited tightening cycle by raising the repo rate from 5.75% to 6.00% this month. We had anticipated the move, and expect that the SARB... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to benefit from risk of industrial unrest The slump in platinum prices to the lowest level in over six years has forced South Africa’s mining companies to restructure, leading to job cuts. With the situation between labour unions and miners... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: New Eurobond raises regional debt concerns The high yield demanded for Zambia’s recent Eurobond is not just a sign of that country’s deteriorating fiscal position. Market sentiment towards Sub-Saharan African government debt seems to be... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa finally begins tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked its key interest rate from 5.75% to 6.00% today, judging that the threat of elevated inflation outweighed the risk of choking off already weak growth. The... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation came in at a below-consensus 4.7% y/y in June, but inflation remains on an upwards trend. While this surprise result will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports nearing a trough Exports from emerging markets continued to be dragged down in May by the impact of low commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But as these effects start to unwind over the second half of... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Not out of the woods yet The rapid appreciation of the cedi over the past month is a positive sign, but it should not be taken to mean that Ghana has successfully resolved its economic problems. The country’s economy remains... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
