Africa Economics Update Nigeria: how to judge a Buhari presidency The inauguration of President Muhammadu Buhari this morning was met with widespread optimism in Nigeria, but the 72-year old must act quickly if he is to retain the political momentum and make serious... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Which EM currencies are misaligned? The Peterson Institute for International Economics is due to publish its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates soon. These are likely to suggest that the Turkish lira... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown shows no sign of abating The slowdown across emerging markets is showing no sign of easing, with our latest GDP Tracker suggesting that growth is now running at 3.7% y/y – its lowest rate since September 2009. Much of the... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities rally It has been a quiet month for financial markets in the Middle East, with most stock markets treading water and bond yields staying low. The one exception is the Egyptian equity index, which rose... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of a grim Q1 First quarter GDP data that have so far been released by EMs have painted a pretty grim picture. In this Update we outline the three key themes that have emerged. 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia and Egypt follow divergent paths The latest activity data suggest that the MENA region’s two largest economies, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have headed in opposite directions at the start of 2015. After recording strong growth last year... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation has troughed The big drag on EM inflation from the drop in commodity prices over the second half of last year will ease over the coming months. With inflation set to rise in most EMs over the second half of this... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today showing that economic growth in South Africa plummeted to 1.3% quarter on quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate are very bad news. Several temporary factors... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets shrug off weak economic news South Africa’s rand rallied over the past month, despite a string of weak economic data suggesting that growth is slowing and inflation is picking up. Nigeria’s naira held steady, but yields on the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa edges closer to rate hike The decision by South Africa’s MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.75% was accompanied by a statement that clearly paved the way for rate hikes over the coming months. We have pencilled in a 25bp rate hike... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices a challenge for key frontier markets Despite a recent rebound, low oil prices are posing a challenge for many frontier markets. Low oilprices were one factor that led the IMF to cut its 2015 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, andwe... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Retail figures point to weak first quarter for South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector faltered in March, supporting our view that GDP growth in the first quarter was a disappointing 2.0% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa rose to 4.5% in April, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian central bank plays down case for tightening The Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave its key interest rate at 13% at today’s meeting was not a surprise, but Governor Godwin Emefiele’s comments at the post-meeting press... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
