Africa Economics Update South African retail sales a positive surprise, but outlook still grim February’s strong South African retail sales data suggest that the economy’s Q1 slowdown was less severe than we had feared. But even so, we expect that weakness in the mining and manufacturing... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to hit a crunch point sooner rather than later Algeria is among the most vulnerable economies in the MENA region to lower oil prices and, while large FX savings mean it should be able to muddle through for the next few years, the economy will... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa: 5-6% growth achievable, but reforms are crucial The outlook for the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has brightened over the last twelve months and we expect growth to strengthen again this year. Further ahead, low income... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Production (Feb.) Data released today show that South African mining and manufacturing production was comparatively strong in February, but we believe that these figures provide a misleadingly optimistic view of the... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of a potential nuclear deal with Iran There are many details that still need to be ironed out, but earlier this month Iran and the West moved another step closer to securing an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear programme. As we explain in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 11.5% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by a rise in food and utility prices. As a result, we think it’s unlikely to have much impact on monetary policy... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: IMF deal a positive, but difficult transition ahead The finalisation of Ghana’s three-year, US$918mn loan from the IMF is a very positive development, but we expect slow growth in 2015 and 2016 as the country’s economic unbalances unwind. That said... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to further weakness The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world slowed further last month, driven mainly by weakness in some of the larger EM economies. By contrast, manufacturers in... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook In the footsteps of the Fed? The recent run of poor data from around the emerging world is likely to set the tone for the rest of this year. Brazil’s struggles look set to continue, Russia is likely to slip deeper into recession... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Political triumph, but economic challenges ahead It is difficult to overstate the importance of Nigeria’s recent election, which is setting up Africa’s most populous country and largest economy for its first ever democratic transition of power... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Last month’s South African manufacturing PMI provides further evidence that the rebound in growth seen at the end of 2014 was temporary and that the economy struggled once again in the first quarter... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
