Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Aug.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both weaker than the figures reported last month. The downbeat data support our view that growth will remain weak over the... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook One extreme to the other Having been too optimistic on the outlook for the emerging world over much of the past five years, the consensus has now shifted too far in the other direction. Economic and financial vulnerabilities... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How we compare with the IMF The IMF downgraded its forecasts for emerging market (EM) growth in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). While we agree with the IMF that EM growth should rebound next year, we think the IMF has... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Governance improves in key economies The latest Mo Ibrahim Index reports that progress on improving governance in Sub-Saharan Africa is stalling at a regional level. Some states, however, have continued to make progress – including many... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Bungled policy response plunges economy into crisis The response of Nigerian policymakers to falling oil prices has only worsened their country’s economic slump. Africa’s largest economy is now on the cusp of a self-induced economic crisis. 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing slows further September’s PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world weakened further last month, with export orders particularly subdued. But in the EMs that have been in the spotlight... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The second consecutive below-50 PMI reading provides more evidence that the strong manufacturing output figures reported for July were a blip and that the sector remains mired in slow growth. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s economy rebounds in Q2 The Kenyan economy received two pieces of good news today, with figures showing that inflation remained stable in September and economic growth picked up in Q2. We believe that the country, a net... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Chinese slowdown fears overstated Speculation regarding a sharp economic slowdown in China has raised worries about the impact on African economies. We believe that these fears are overdone, for three key reasons. First, the prospects... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Global headwinds, local responses batter markets African financial markets mostly performed poorly over the past month due to a combination of foreign shocks and botched domestic policy responses. We are increasingly worried about the risk of an... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
