Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports raise questions over global demand Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in China’s... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today, showing that growth in Nigeria slowed to 4.0% y/y, support our view that the economy will perform poorly in 2015. Growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors was subdued... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2015) The outlook for consumers has remained bright in large parts of the emerging world. In particular, consumption looks set to grow strongly in Central Europe and Emerging Asia over the coming months. In... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: surprise hike probably result of IMF pressure The Bank of Ghana justified its surprise decision to hike its policy interest rate, from 21% to 22%, today by pointing to elevated inflation, although we think that pressure from the IMF also played a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Mar.) The surprisingly rapid expansion of South Africa’s manufacturing output by 3.8% y/y in March is unlikely to signal a significant turnaround for the embattled sector. We expect that labour disputes and... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM bond yields The sell-off in the bond market in developed economies that grabbed the headlines over the past few weeks has also hit emerging markets but, so far at least, it does not provide much cause for concern... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdown – why this time is different According to our GDP Tracker, EM growth has now fallen to a low last seen in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis and, prior to that, the 2001-02 Argentine crisis. However, the causes... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation fell back to 11.0% y/y in April but we think the central bank will wait for inflation to ease further before it cuts interest rates again. The effects of last year’s energy price... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing weakens further as BRICs struggle Manufacturers across the emerging world appear to have continued to struggle in April, according to the latest PMI data. The slowdown was driven by weakness in the larger BRIC economies. Meanwhile... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks below 4% Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since the global financial crisis, and only the second time in almost 15 years. What’s more, with China’s slowdown... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
