Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell slightly m/m in April but has returned to pre-strike levels. While this could adversely impact platinum and palladium prices in the short... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Apr.) Mining and manufacturing output figures released today showed that growth remained weak in two key sectors of the South African economy. And the spectre of wage disputes suggests that the mining... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Trade agreement promising, but no immediate impact Media coverage of Africa’s “Tripartite Free Trade Agreement” has exaggerated the pact’s effect on economic integration, which will be limited by piecemeal implementation and crumbling infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Optimism over opening up of Saudi’s stock market seems overdone The move by Saudi Arabia to open up its stock market to foreign investors from next week is a step in the right direction. But, as we explain in this Watch, we think some of the optimism about its... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices to ease as Ghana’s production rebounds The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But a rebound in Ghana’s 2015/16 harvest should put downward pressure on prices later this year. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya hikes rates to shore up shilling Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee hiked its key interest rate by 150bps today, a clear attempt to signal that the bank is serious about curbing high inflation and protecting the rapidly-depreciating... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: faltering tourism sector deals blow to economy Declining tourist numbers pose yet another threat to South Africa’s already beleaguered economy. And the impact of onerous new visa regulations are likely to make the situation even worse. 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: shilling weakness no cause for panic The recent weakness of the Kenyan shilling is not, as some local media has alleged, the first sign of an impending balance of payments crisis. The shilling will probably continue to depreciate, but... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF still the best option, but a deal seems unlikely for now Reports in the Egyptian media that the government is set to open discussions on a $6bn financing package with the IMF are likely to prove premature. For now, the authorities seem content to undertake... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Gabon: Low oil prices pose lasting economic challenge Growth in oil-rich Gabon is highly dependent on government spending, and low oil prices are causing a painful fiscal crunch that is dampening economic activity. Faltering economic expansion will... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) May’s South African manufacturing PMI reading of 50.8 was a rare piece of positive news for the country, which has seen a run of dispiriting economic figures. Even so, this figure is consistent with a... 1st June 2015 · 1 min read
