Africa Economics Update South Africa: The Zuma saga is far from over Today’s vote to impeach President Jacob Zuma will almost certainly fail. But efforts to oust the president will continue, potentially distracting political attention from South Africa’s dire economic... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The unexpected improvement in South Africa’s PMI is very welcome news for the struggling economy. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator with a mixed record of predicting real... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand finally rebounds The South African rand appreciated sharply this month, solidifying the gains it has made since the turn of the year. Other African financial markets also preformed relatively well. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria reverses course? The biggest policy change over the past month came from Nigeria, where the Central Bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate from 11.00% to 12.00%. This move partially reversed the Bank’s rate cut... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s central bank makes long-awaited devaluation The Egyptian central bank’s decision to devalue the pound this month ended months of growing speculation that a move in the currency was on the cards. In the near term, this will bring some pain. The... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook The worst is yet to come Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to a 16 year-low last year, and we believe that growth will weaken even further 2016. Three key factors will drive this decline. First, a combination of drought... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa Economics Update Nigerian officials unexpectedly abandoned two key economic policies yesterday by tightening monetary policy and re-instating a partial ban on rice imports. The immediate economic effects will be mixed... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
