Africa Economics Update Africa’s much-touted “rise” stalls in 2015 A combination of low commodity prices and domestic weaknesses will drag growth in Sub-Saharan Africa down to around 3.3% this year, a very grim figure for a region often touted as the “next China”. 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth now not much faster than DM growth On some measures, the slowdown in emerging markets (EMs) in the second quarter of this year meansthat EM growth is now not much faster than developed market (DM) growth. 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Cost of Nigerian FX restrictions becoming increasingly clear On the face of it, Nigeria’s restrictions on access to foreign currency have been quite successful at stabilising the naira and the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the adverse... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Outlook for EM manufacturers deteriorates further August’s PMIs, published earlier today, paint a gloomy picture of the health of the emerging world.Conditions in manufacturing appear to have deteriorated further across a wide swath of EMs last month... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides yet further evidence of economic weakness. Perhaps the best that can be said is that the manufacturing sector’s performance so far in... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re upbeat on the outlook for Morocco After a difficult few years, the outlook for Morocco is finally brightening. We think the country could be one of the best performing economies in the emerging world over the coming years. 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to have mixed impact on EM inflation The recent bout of currency weakness is likely to add to inflation concerns in EMs that have either seen their currencies fall a long way or have limited spare capacity in their economies (mainly... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China, domestic woes weigh on African markets African financial markets performed poorly over the past month due to acombination of domestic economic problems and deteriorating investor sentimenttowards emerging markets on the back of worries... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth lacklustre, but not collapsing EM growth edged down further in June. But for all the gloom in the headlines, we see no sign of the collapse some are talking about. In particular, in China, after a weak start to the year, conditions... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) Although the latest data show stronger output in the South African PGM sector in June, the risk of strike action has risen in the last month and the potential for further power disruption remains. We... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The sharp drop in South African GDP in Q2 was the second worst outturn since the depths of the global financial crisis. Today’s data may prompt the Reserve Bank’s MPC to think twice before next month... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Making sense of the EM sell-off The rout in EM financial markets is generating increasingly hysterical headlines with many commentators seemingly fighting to outdo one another with predictions of doom and gloom for emerging... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Which frontier market peg could be the next to go? The recent devaluation of China’s renminbi and the slump in commodity prices were the two key factors behind Vietnam’s decision last week to widen the dong trading band with the dollar and the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
