Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Jan.) The drop in retail sales growth is the latest figure that suggests that the South African economy lost momentum in January. We expect that GDP growth will be a below-consensus 0.5%. 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Nigerian inflation rose to 11.6% y/y in February, largely due to the falling parallel market exchange rate. This will deal yet another blow to the controversial FX system. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade fears overdone The latest trade figures have reignited fears about the health of emerging markets. But while EM trade growth has slowed in recent years, we see little reason for alarm. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has the oil windfall been felt unevenly across EMs Consumer spending growth has risen far more sharply in Emerging Europe than in Emerging Asia over the past year and a half, even though both regions have received a similar boost from the drop in oil... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) The latest Nigerian GDP figures support our view that growth in Africa’s largest economy will be much weaker than most expect. While Nigeria has been battered by low oil prices, the country’s bungled... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity slowdown: cyclical or structural? The slump in growth in EM commodity producers partly reflects a deterioration in potential growth rates in these economies but is mainly the result of cyclical weakness caused by a collapse in their... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What would a ratings downgrade mean for South Africa? South Africa’s disappointing 2016 budget published last month has reinforced concerns about the prospect of a ratings downgrade to junk status. This would clearly be damaging to the government’s... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMI surveys fall across EMs The fall in February’s manufacturing PMI surveys across emerging markets serves as a reminder that, while the worst for the industrial sectors in most EMs is probably behind us, conditions remain... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP data from South Africa underline the economy’s sluggish growth prospects. At the margin, we suspect that these data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
