Commodities Watch Second half of the year bodes well for coffee Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Informal economies pose statistical challenges A new IMF paper highlights the large role the informal sector plays in African economies. It casts further doubt on official growth figures, and suggests that debt-to-GDP figures are painting a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Cycles start to turn in the BRICs The growth outlook for major EMs is starting to diverge. While there are signs that a slowdown is now underway in China, cyclical rebounds lie ahead in India, Brazil and Russia. 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies struggle, but equities remain strong Most African currencies weakened in June, though Nigeria’s was a key exception. The naira will probably stay pretty stable on both the official and parallel rates. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap MSCI review prompts mixed reactions in Saudi and Argentina MSCI’s latest review of its benchmark equity indices has prompted significant moves in some of the largest frontier stock markets over the past month. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul has jumped 8% since MSCI... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017 Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) Having fallen sharply in April, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI surged May. We don’t put much faith in this indicator, but today’s reading supports our view that the economy is holding up better than... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan statistics: Painting a flattering picture? The lead-up to Kenya’s general election in August is coinciding with rising scepticism in the country about the quality of official economic figures. In this Watch, we will lay out why we are... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Talk of a manufacturing-led boom is overdone The success of Ethiopia’s fledgling manufacturing sector distinguishes the country from its African peers. But comparisons with Asia’s manufacturing-led boom are, at least as yet, premature. 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
