Africa Economics Update How important is Zimbabwe’s economy? The military takeover in Zimbabwe last night has drawn attention to the escalating political crisis in the country. In this Update, we look at the economic angle and explain why the latest... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery continued in Q3 South African activity data for September were disappointing, but it looks like the economy expanded by a decent 2% q/q saar over Q3 as a whole. More timely figures for October suggest that the... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Last month’s Nigerian inflation reading of 15.9% y/y means that, although the central bank has signalled that it intends to cut interest rates, this is unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. We... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s business environment: A look behind the numbers An improved performance by several African economies – notably Nigeria – on the World Bank’s Doing Business index has resulted in some very positive headlines. But we would caution against assigning... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output data held up in Q3 South African output data for September were disappointing. But a stronger performance earlier in Q3 probably kept headline growth pretty robust – by local standards – over the course of last quarter. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa budget, Kenya election jolt markets Political shocks hit markets in South Africa and Kenya in recent weeks. Markets elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa also performed pretty poorly over the course of October, though they remain up on the... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: A look at the balance sheet Kenya’s ongoing political crisis is drawing attention to its fragile balance sheet. Our core view is that policymakers should be able to manage the situation. Even if the currency were to weaken... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A multispeed recovery We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in the region’s three biggest economies – Nigeria, South... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Nearing the cyclical peak Economic growth looks set to strengthen in most EMs over the next year, but the cycle is now close to peaking in China and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets soften in September A combination of rising political risk and falling commodity prices caused key African markets to weaken over the past month. Only a few markets bucked the trend, and they gained very little ground. 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
