Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output falters at start of Q3 The first Q3 South African output data support our view that the rapid growth reported in Q2 is unlikely to be sustained. The economy may post positive growth in 2016 as a whole, but only marginally. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further sharp rise in Egyptian inflation, to 15.5% y/y in August, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates at its meeting later this month. With further subsidy cuts on the... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) Strong q/q growth in Q2 mostly reflects a bounce back following the disaster of Q1. We expect that growth will be sluggish in the second half of the year. 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound could fall 25% if central bank loosens its grip We think the Egyptian pound could fall by as much as 25% against the US dollar, to 12.0/US$, by end-2017 if the authorities shift to a more flexible exchange rate as part of its prospective IMF deal. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The sharp decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI looks worrying. But we wouldn’t panic; the survey has become a less reliable leading indicator recently. 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy risks cast shadow over fragile economies Official data released over the past month mostly suggested that African economies improved a touch, but a series of political shocks has hit investor confidence. The most high-profile of these as... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Political risk spook investors Political risk has roiled the markets in South Africa, Nigeria, and Kenya over the past month. Tensions within South Africa’s cabinet, which pose a risk to the country’s already fragile economy... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal Financial markets in Egypt have rallied over the past month after the government reached an agreement with the IMF over a US$12bn financing package. Equities have risen, spreads on dollar-denominated... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation eased from 6.3% y/y in June to a weaker-than-expected 6.0% in July, but we still think that inflation will pick up again later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to hike... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Japan’s role will remain limited This week’s high-profile Japan-Africa summit will not change the fact that Tokyo remains a relatively minor player in Africa. In some areas, however, Japan will continue to play a significant role. 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Gradual acceleration, but recovery will be slow After two years of progressively slower growth, most African economies will strengthen in 2017. This recovery will be driven by rising commodity prices, which should ease strains in the balance of... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
