Europe Economics Update Historic policy split to push euro below parity The prospect of a historically large divergence between US and euro-zone monetary policy looks set to push the euro below parity versus the US dollar for the first time since late 2002. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Much more to EM currencies than interest rate differentials Unlike in developed markets, interest rate differentials are not a particularly good guide to currency movements in emerging markets (EMs). Accordingly, while there will be bumps in the road, we do... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up in October, providing reassurance that last month’s unexpected dip was a one-off. There are plenty of reasons to think that mortgage activity will... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE trade data show demand still rising strongly China’s rare earth (REE) trade data show that exports were up 104% in the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier as the removal of export quotas and tariffs continued to... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Any recovery in alumina prices is likely to be limited Alumina prices are strongly influenced by aluminium prices, as demand for aluminium constitutes the bulk of demand for alumina. Since we expect aluminium prices to recover only slowly, alumina prices... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement and Spending Review at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Following the uptick in yesterday’s flash manufacturing PMI, the renewed rise in small business confidence in November adds to the evidence that activity will rebound this quarter. 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Window for further loosening has closed The Reserve Bank of India has cut policy rates by 125bp so far this year, but there are a number of reasons to think that it will keep the repo rate on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) The sizeable upward revision to Singapore’s Q3 GDP growth will ease some of the worst concerns over its economy, but subdued prospects for global demand and rising local interest rates hang over the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover but not until next year US and Chinese steel prices have continued to fall due to overcapacity and strong exports from China. However, the US government has begun to impose anti-dumping duties and Chinese output should fall... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The sharp decline in the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to a 14-month low of 90.4 in November, from a revised 99.1, is hard to square with the usual drivers of confidence - gasoline... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Weak EMs drag down global trade volumes World trade growth remains frail largely as a result of the continued lacklustre performance of emerging economies. However, we don’t think this is an early sign of a widespread downturn in the global... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Retailers set for more than just a Black Friday boost Heavy discounting on the high street and online on Black Friday is likely to provide a bigger boost to spending this year than last. What’s more, the rise in real earnings, confidence and employment... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack rapidly shrinking Our econometric model points to a solid 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in November, although we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%. Base effects mean that even if... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth may be coming off the boil The upswing in the rental recovery continues to gather pace. But, offsetting this, the contribution of yield impact is steadily falling and capital value growth slowing. With little to suggest an... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Devaluation fears rise in Egypt and Saudi Arabia The past month has bought mounting speculation about currency devaluation in the region’s two largest economies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In the case of Saudi Arabia, we think this is extremely... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
