Africa Chart Pack Inflation worries, Fed prompt hikes across Africa Over the past month central banks in South Africa, Ghana, Zambia, and Mozambique have all hiked interest rates. These countries’ domestic situations all vary, but each is facing a combination of high... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finance figures suggest that borrowing has not fallen as quickly as the OBR predicted, leaving the Chancellor with less room for manoeuvre in his Autumn Statement on 25th November. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well placed to weather Fed lift-off The parts of Asia that were hardest hit during the 2013 “Taper Tantrum” have seen their current account deficits fall back, or even disappear, over the past couple of years. This should make them less... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abenomics has not altered Japan’s long-term outlook Output may have contracted again last quarter, but Japan’s growth has actually been fairly healthy by past standards since Mr Abe returned to power, despite stronger demographic headwinds. But the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rebound in activity will be short-lived Although GDP growth probably rebounded in the third quarter, New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet as the full impact of the collapse in the dairy price is still working its way through... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Underlying household spending remains strong The underlying picture for household spending remains positive. Real household spending in Q3 looks likely to have grown by around 0.8% q/q, the rate seen in Q1 and Q2. And while retail sales volumes... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate has finally found a floor Our call over two years ago that the homeownership rate would see further declines has proved broadly correct. But with foreclosures now back to historical norms, and credit conditions gradually... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the US dollar now overvalued? According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the US dollar now looks “fundamentally” overvalued. However, valuations can stretch a long way before they snap, and other... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The latest rise in Brazilian inflation, to a 12-year high of 10.3% y/y in the first half of this month, was due to a combination of a rise in food inflation, which appears to be due to a weaker real... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can retail sales data tell us about shopping centre rents? The strength in headline retail sales volumes is at odds with shopping centres’ poor rental performance. This is due to the fact that sales of items that form the core of shopping centres’ offering... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally shows EM markets can withstand Fed tightening The positive reaction by investors to the minutes from October’s FOMC meeting supports our view that emerging markets (EM) will fare relatively well in 2016/17 as US interest rates are raised. We... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
