Commodities Update First global deficit in six years to lift sugar prices in 2016 After surging in early October due to a rise in Brazilian fuel prices, the world price for sugar has remained strong but volatile. Despite poor harvests in Brazil and the EU, further price rises this... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The further decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September and the downward revision to August provides more evidence that the economic recovery from the mild recession in the first half of the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices should recover soon as market rebalances Last week’s slide in the price of crude oil has prompted us to lower our end-2015 forecasts, but we continue to expect a gradual recovery over the coming year. In particular, the latest news on global... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana doubles down on policy tightening The Bank of Ghana’s surprise interest rate hike reflects fears that above-target inflation is becoming entrenched. Tight monetary policy will be painful, but the Bank provided the first hint that... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy shifts down a gear Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply in September. With a fiscal squeeze expected to get underway soon, this is likely to be a sign of things to come over the next... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) Wholesale price inflation picked up in October and, looking ahead, we think that it will rise further over the coming months as the base effects that have helped to keep down food and fuel inflation... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thailand's growth picked up in the third quarter, to a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% q/q from a revised 0.3% the quarter before. While the worst should now be over for Thailand’s economy, the recovery is... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Preliminary) The second straight contraction in GDP underlines the downside risks to the Bank of Japan’s growth forecasts. With rising slack dampening price pressures, we remain convinced that more monetary... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Medical care inflation due for a rebound Although the Fed expects to raise interest rates only very gradually next year, we suspect that an acceleration in core inflation, thanks in part to a rebound in medical care inflation, will force the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Sep.) The pick-up in Peruvian economic activity in September suggests that the economy’s recovery is still on track. Nonetheless, the weakness of August’s data means that GDP growth was probably unchanged... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) & Business Sales (Sep.) The rebound in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure to a four-month high of 93.1 in November, from 90.0, presumably reflects the rebound in stock markets and the resilience of... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renewed weakness in industrial commodities should be temporary 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment remains deeply negative Prices of industrial commodities have taken a battering this week as investor sentiment continues to sour. While Chinese economic data painted a subdued picture of activity in October, in our view... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices likely to perk up Weak producer currencies have supported coffee exports and weighed on US dollar prices. But with depleted inventories, we think a tighter market will put upward pressure on prices next year. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
