US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower copper price premium may have an upside Given prevailing market conditions, reports that Codelco has cut copper price premiums for 2016 sharply was hardly that surprising. We therefore think the negative market reaction has been overdone... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting signs that Egypt’s exchange rate policy will shift There is growing talk that Egypt is in the midst of a currency crisis and, while we think some of this may be a bit overdone, developments over the past month or so suggest that a shift towards a more... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: CBK holds rates, hike still likely in Q1 While the Central Bank of Kenya held its key interest rate at 11.50% today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to raise rates by 100bp in early 2016 as inflation picks up and Fed tightening puts... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Solar to provide additional support to silver prices Over the next few years, the price of silver should benefit further from governments’ increased focus on reducing global carbon dioxide emissions through investing in renewable energy. Solar energy is... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Nov.) The German ZEW investor survey showed that easing fears about the global environment led sentiment to improve in November and suggested that the Paris attacks have had little impact on sentiment so... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think Financial markets still do not expect interest rates to rise until the end of 2016. While we agree that interest rates will rise very slowly, we expect the first rise to come sooner, probably in the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) October’s -0.1% rate of CPI inflation could be the last we see of deflation for now, although we don’t think inflation will reach the 2% target until 2018. 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s trade deficit narrowed in October and, looking ahead, there are reasons to think that the import bill will remain in check. Given this, the overall current account position looks unlikely to... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2015) Lower commodity prices have continued to weigh on consumption in commodity-exporting EMs. Indeed, there are signs that even in those economies where spending had previously held up reasonably well... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to step up pace of easing The renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter suggests that underlying inflation will start to moderate before long. We therefore still think that more easing will eventually be required, with... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q3 15) Norway’s oil and gas sector was not as strong in Q3 as the headline GDP data suggest. And growth in the mainland economy slowed. We suspect that this will prompt the Norges Bank to loosen monetary... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
