Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Capital spending likely to bear brunt of austerity in the Gulf The Gulf countries are in a strong position to cope with low oil prices, but some form of adjustment will be needed over the coming years. We expect tighter fiscal policy to do most of the work and we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) UK retail spending fell slightly in October. But, more importantly, sales held onto most of the strong gain seen in September. 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q3) Housing starts recovered in Q3, reversing some of the dip in activity seen in the second quarter. But with labour shortages worsening and unemployment already close to a record low, a rapid... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will US equities and government bonds fare? US equities have fared better than US Treasuries in 2015. We suspect that this will remain the case over the next couple of years, as the Fed tightens monetary policy. Nonetheless, the longer-term... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar strength weighs on agriculturals Strong US employment data and statements from members of the Federal Reserve in recent weeks have combined to bring forward investors’ expectations for the first US rate hike to December. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to continue drifting lower The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, looking ahead, the currency could drift a little lower as the US Fed begins to tighten policy. But given the big... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will still have to ease more While the Bank of Japan does not seem to be overly concerned about the recent weakness in activity, we think price pressures will moderate in coming months as spare capacity has risen. Accordingly, we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) While export volumes probably edged up in October, external demand is set to remain sluggish for now. 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Time for Dr. Copper to be struck off? The continued slide in the price of copper has added to concerns about global growth. However, the industrial metal’s track record at diagnosing the health of the world economy has actually been shaky... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of crude oil ticked up only slightly last week, whilst stocks of gasoline edged up again as refineries continued to increase production. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What are the relative prospects for US equities and bonds? 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Paris attacks loosen Europe’s fiscal shackles? While fiscal authorities may tolerate increased security spending by some governments after the Paris terror attacks, suggestions that Europe’s budget rules will be swept aside are over the top. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) October’s double-digit drop in housing starts was disappointing. But there are good reasons to believe that starts will bounce back in November. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property well placed to withstand rate rises The commercial property market seems to be at a point of transition, which will be characterised by yield-driven gains in capital values giving way to capital value growth that is driven largely, if... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s slow burning fiscal problem Despite a sharp fall in energy revenues, there is no imminent risk of a fiscal crisis in Russia. Accordingly, we don’t share the view that the government needs to tighten policy immediately; indeed... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What’s behind the pick-up in core inflation? While media headlines have focused on low energy prices and the risks of deflation, core inflation has actually risen in most advanced economies in recent months. However, it has done so for very... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
