Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) World Steel Association (WSA) data for October show that global steel output fell by 3.1% y/y, with declines in most major producing regions. World output has been down y/y in every month this year... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value growth set to peak in 2015 Compared to our last Analyst, we have increased our expectations for yield compression over the next two years. Yet in most markets, lower yields in 2017 will lead to greater upward yield pressure in... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China worries continue to weigh on sentiment Prices of most industrial metals fell sharply this week, largely reflecting persistent investor concerns about the prospects for Chinese demand. The latest data showed LME money managers cutting their... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation to rise more gradually in the UK than US The release of the UK and US inflation figures last week provided a reminder of why the MPC is likely to raise interest rates later than the US Fed. Inflation rates in both economies will pick up... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) The annual headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.0% in October but will soon rise sharply, as the drag from lower gasoline prices fades. Meanwhile, core inflation will stay close to 2.0% as the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Outlook for sectoral REE demand is positive The market sectors which consume the most rare earths (REEs) are also the ones where demand is expected to grow the most next year. As such, REE demand should strengthen further next year. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do the weekly changes in US oil stocks actually tell us? Changes in US weekly crude oil stocks are most influenced by variations in net crude imports, which are extremely volatile. This means it is difficult to make inferences about prices just by looking... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from emerging economies? Advanced economies have proved resilient this year in the face of a slowdown in emerging markets (EMs). As it happens, we think EM growth is likely to recover, gradually, in the coming months. But... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium output grew by almost 8% y/y in October. Excluding China, output rose by less than 4% y/y. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
