Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets rally on election in Turkey, but sell off in Poland The Turkish lira and stock market jumped in the immediate aftermath of the country’s election at the start of the month, which lifted the political uncertainty that had weighed on investors since June... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) As expected, existing home sales contracted in October. While housing demand is being supported by a strengthening labour market and gradual easing in credit conditions, a lack of housing inventory is... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are we only part way through the downswing of a super-cycle? The recent slump in industrial commodity prices can largely be attributed to ample supply built up during the previous boom colliding with a sharp slowdown in demand. As such, it can be seen as the... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a housing bubble inflating again in Ireland? Comments from the outgoing governor of Ireland’s central bank that he “knows” that there won’t be another housing bubble smack of hubris. While there does not appear to be a bubble in the housing... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation likely to be a last resort Speculation over a devaluation of the Saudi riyal has mounted in the past few days but we think such a move is likely to be used as a last resort. Instead, we think cuts to capital spending are likely... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Yield compression to slow in 2016 Since our last Analyst, the greatest change has been to our yield forecasts, which are now expected to decline further than previously expected in the next couple of years. We also envisage them... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGMs imports weaken China’s imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) weakened in October but car production and the gold/platinum price ratio suggest that PGMs demand could soon improve. 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The Myth of the “African Middle Class” Oft-repeated claims that an African “middle class” will propel economic growth in the region confuse cause and effect. Most estimates of the size of the region’s middle class rely on poorly drawn... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri victory in Argentine elections brightens economic outlook The election of pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri as Argentina’s new president is likely to herald a much-needed shift towards orthodox economic policymaking. In the near term, this is likely to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s solid rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggests that the region’s recovery might regain some pace in Q4 after Q3’s slight slowdown. But we doubt that the outlook has improved enough to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State elections, strikes, and civil servant salaries Prime Minister Modi has spent much of November on official visits to the UK and Singapore, but a number of domestic issues have made this a month that he will want to forget. 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s tourism rebound has run its course The bombings in Bangkok in mid-August have not prevented the tourism sector from giving Thailand’s economy a big boost this year. But a repeat cannot be expected in 2016, which is one reason why GDP... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will underlying inflation continue to rise? We believe that the recent strength in the Bank of Japan’s new core inflation measure reflects the lagged pass-through to prices of the weaker yen rather than a pick-up in domestic price pressures... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Preview Although the Chancellor will use his Autumn Statement on 25th November to soften the blow forhouseholds facing cuts in their tax credits, the big picture will still be that the economy faces a... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
