Japan Economics Update Stagnant wage demands another headwind to QQE The fact that Japan’s main trade union federation says that it will not demand stronger pay hikes in the upcoming wage negotiations than it did last time around provides another reason to think that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s in store for US high-yield corporate bonds? US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewed fall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do not think... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of dollar appreciation expected to wane next year At first glance, there would appear to be an inconsistency between our forecast that the trade-weighted dollar will increase by a modest 2% next year, while at the same time we also expect short-term... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2015: OBR digs Osborne out of a hole This was a much more benign Autumn Statement than most had anticipated. Nonetheless, the big picture is still that austerity will renew in earnest next year – although we think that the economic... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar strength unlikely to alter outlooks for monetary policy Being long of the dollar is reportedly one of the most crowded trades in the market. However, we stillthink that the US currency has further to climb against other majors. Indeed, we now expect the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose again last week, but the big picture is still that stocks appear to be levelling out. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks jumped as refinery runs continued to increase and demand for... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Autumn Statement 2015: Osborne targets BTL again With little additional detail on business rates, and the Starter Homes Initiative simply a restatement of a policy announced last year, Help to Buy London and the Chancellor’s latest assault on BTL... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank still putting faith in export-led recovery We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its key interest rate 0.50% next week and remain neutral on the direction of its next potential move. While highlighting the further slide in oil prices as a... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewedfall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do notthink... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Oct.) October’s personal spending and durable goods data reveal a fairly muted start to activity in the fourth quarter. Real consumption increased by a modest 0.1% m/m last month, while non-defence capital... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Will lead continue to outperform zinc? While there has been much media coverage of the recent falls in oil and copper prices, the simultaneous slide in the prices of lead and zinc has not been so well documented. In this Metals & Mining... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
