UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Oct.) Lending to commercial property in net terms contracted in October, in line with lending to the economy as a whole. Indeed, banks’ exposure to the sector continues to fall, with lending to development... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up again in October, confirming that last month’s dip was not the start of a weakening trend. In contrast, approvals for remortgaging cooled... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia’s sanctions on Turkey The economic impact of the Russian sanctions on Turkey announced this weekend will, in general, probably be limited. Our best estimate of the maximum losses to the Turkish economy is around 0.5% of... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q3) Sweden’s economy posted yet another decent expansion in Q3, which was encouragingly broad-based. But Danish GDP contracted due to weak net exports, suggesting that the euro-zone’s summer slowdown may... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s tightening cycle has further to run The smaller-than-expected 25bp hike in Colombia’s benchmark interest rate, to 5.50%, suggests that policymakers are starting to worry about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the economy. But... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China-Africa: What to expect from this year’s FOCAC This Friday South Africa will host the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a triannual summit jointly convened by China and the Africa Union. The forum will be Africa’s highest-profile... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal drag now turning to fiscal boost The debate about China’s economic outlook hinges on what caused growth to slow early in 2015. One of the main culprits, in our view, was fiscal policy, which tightened significantly in late-2014 and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Oct.) The second straight rise in industrial production indicates that the economy returned to growth this quarter following two straight contractions in output. 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Precious metals struggle ahead of first US rate hike US dollar strength and the prospect of rising US interest rates continued to weigh on precious metals prices this week. In contrast, industrial metals prices were volatile, but generally ended the... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic rebound may already be fading The evidence suggests that the economy stumbled at the end of the third quarter, casting doubt about its capacity to survive the worsening oil price collapse. With non-exports misfiring and business... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian equities slide It’s been a bad month for Nigerian markets as local stocks have declined further, reaching their lowest level since February. The latest leg down appears to have been triggered by the central bank’s... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger activity surveys won’t deter ECB Euro-zone activity surveys for November, released last week, suggest that the economic recovery regained some pace in Q4. But the rates of growth that they imply would still only reduce the spare... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How low could iron ore prices fall? Iron ore prices have weakened sharply since September and have recently fallen below $45 per tonne, weighed down by slower demand growth and excessive supply. Given these weak market conditions, we... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are capex cuts enough to lift PGM prices? Persistently weak prices of platinum group metal (PGMs) have forced the three largest PGM miners in South Africa to undertake deep cuts to their capital expenditure, workforce and cost structure. At... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
