Energy Watch Hopes of Saudi led shift in OPEC policy to be disappointed The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 4 th December, is set to be much more interesting than the one in June. Indonesia will re-join the group for the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement adds to mounting pressure on retailers The measures announced in the Autumn Statement should provide a small boost to consumers’ incomes next year relative to the July Budget. But at just 0.2% of nominal income, it is unlikely to be... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB to limit but not prevent franc appreciation The latest comments from Chairman Thomas Jordan suggest that the Swiss National Bank will act decisively to limit franc strength, including through further direct intervention in FX markets. But we... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Deteriorating supply prospects should lift nickel prices The collapse in the nickel price this year is hard to justify based on fundamentals alone. Ultimately, we expect further constraints on supply, amid steady growth in demand, to boost prices in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Global easing cycle not over, despite looming Fed hikes After many delays we think the US Fed will – finally – raise rates in December. However, the global easing cycle is likely to continue next year,for several reasons. Underlying inflation in Japan and... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor No rebound yet but growth still stable Our updated China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained broadly stable last month. The rebound we are expecting has not yet materialised but there is no sign of the slump in growth that... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China’s gold imports (Oct.) Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong fell in October following increases in the three previous months. We expect total imports by China to rise in the coming months and imports by India to... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone monetary data showed some signs of improvement in October, but continue to point to low inflation and slow growth, strengthening the case for the ECB to increase its stimulus next week. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The plunge in private capital expenditure in the third quarter suggests that GDP growthwas a little weaker than we had been expecting and, more worryingly, that non-mininginvestment is not filling the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price recovery should limit further falls in crop prices The recent weakness of oil prices has weighed on the prices of major agricultural commodities, since oil is an important component of crop production costs and oil prices affect demand for agriculture... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A robust rebound Economic activity in both Australia and New Zealand appears to have been pretty robust in the third quarter, with the latest data pointing to gain in GDP of around 0.7% q/q and 1.0% q/q respectively... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) Although the Philippines economy did not gain as much momentum as expected in the third quarter, it remains one of the region’s bright spots. What’s more, we think that improvements to the business... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
