UK Economics Weekly Definitely not the end of austerity The Chancellor’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed him to do everything he wanted in last week’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement – and more. Indeed, it is... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Nov) Our forecasts put us towards the high end of the current Consensus. However, given our view that productivity will deliver a positive surprise, helping to keep interest rates and property yields low... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the ECB right to be worried about commercial property pricing? The ECB has expressed concern at the high level of commercial property pricing. However, with alternative asset class yields set to stay low and the potential for further rental value growth, we think... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s EC consumer and business survey supported the message from other survey indicators released earlier this week that after Q3’s slowdown the eurozone’s economic recovery may have regained... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fears of Asia slowdown overdone For all the talk of a sharp slowdown in Asia, regional growth remains remarkably stable. That said, there are still no signs of recovery, with exports again acting as a drag on growth in the third... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) November’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provided further evidence that Central and Eastern Europe’s recent strong performance continued into the final quarter of the year. The surveys suggest that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Nov.) and Land Registry (Oct.) House Prices Today’s data showed that there has been little if any increase in house price pressures over the past month. And the Chancellor’s recent actions against buy-to-let strengthen our case that house price... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q3) The second estimate of Q3 GDP confirmed that growth in the UK slowed and was relatively unbalanced. That said, we believe that this slowdown will be temporary but that these imbalanced may persist. 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will minimum wage hikes boost consumption? Prime Minister Abe has expressed his desire to lift the minimum wage by 3% per year to boost earnings and consumer spending. However, we estimate that aggregate labour income would rise by less than 0... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Consumer Data Response We doubt that the fall in confidence in November is a sign that the pace of the consumer recovery is unwinding. The headline balance remains strong on a historical basis, and other elements of the GfK... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further FPC action would not undermine recovery We could finally see some policy action from the Bank of England next week – but not in the form of a tightening in monetary policy. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) may flex its muscle by using... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New bankruptcy code would be a big step forward Plans to overhaul India’s archaic bankruptcy laws, due to be discussed in the upcoming winter session of parliament, would be a major step towards creating a more favourable business climate and... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Oct.) The Bank of Japan’s new favourite price gauge last month recorded the first drop since February. With sizeable amounts of slack dampening price pressures, this slowdown should continue in coming... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Will the ECB meet expectations? The question is not whether the ECB’s Governing Council will loosen monetary policy at its meeting on December 3rd, but rather whether it will do so decisively enough to meet the very strong... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
