EM Valuations Monitor Dollar-denominated bonds primed for “lift-off” Fed tightening may dampen demand for emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds in the next couple of years, but with spreads over US Treasuries already high we do not expect a major... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current QE rules won’t stop the ECB An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A rise in mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage refinancing activity in November. But applications for home purchase fared better, with the weekly breakdown showing an encouraging rise in... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget Saudi Arabia’s upcoming budget statement will be scrutinised even more than usual and we suspect (and hope) that it will provide more realistic forecasts as well as a clear agenda for fiscal... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample supplies to keep corn prices under pressure While the US EPA’s finalised renewable fuel standard should boost demand for US corn next year, we think ample global supplies will continue to weigh on the price in the near term. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) November’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures gave a final green light for the ECB to announce much-needed additional monetary policy stimulus at tomorrow’s Governing Council... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Nov.) At a glance, November’s Construction PMI provided few positives for commercial development activity. However, with reports of falling availability, and rents still rising, it is likely that the... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack No reprieve yet for commodities prices The prices of commodities continued to fall in November, pummelled by the strength of the US dollar and persistent concerns about a hard landing in China. While supply-side developments explain the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM manufacturing continues, but remains uneven November’s PMI surveys, published today, point to a continued but extremely patchy recovery across the EM world. Industry seems to be doing better in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe but the PMIs for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) Manufacturing PMIs suggest that global manufacturing growth remained steady in November, despite a sharp slowdown in the US. 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glimmers of hope on the demand side There are many factors behind the current weakness of commodity prices, including the overhang of supply from the previous boom, the strength of the US dollar, and poor investor sentiment. But there... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) While the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.6 in November, from 50.1, left it at the lowest level since the recession ended in mid-2009, it doesn't mean that the economy is headed for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The further fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in November, to a fresh five-year low of 43.8, adds to evidence that the economy is yet to bottom out. The data are broadly consistent with industrial... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
