India Economics Update Public sector pay rise to pose another inflation risk Inflation is likely to have accelerated in November, as last year’s slump in global oil prices begins to drop out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, the Pay Commission’s recommendation for a... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Broad price pressures set to rise Despite widespread concerns about deflation, consumer price inflation has remained within a narrow (positive) range over the course of this year. With credit growth rebounding and wage growth... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 Revised) & Current Account (Oct.) Revised data show that GDP rebounded in Q3 rather than shrinking as initially reported. With the recovery continuing this quarter, the Bank of Japan will probably leave policy settings in January. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3 15) The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack How exposed are US Treasuries to tighter Fed policy? The broad-based strength of the last two US employment reports has seen investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. Investors now expect the federal funds rate to rise at a faster pace than... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will the US corporate bond market handle Fed tightening? 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France to suffer in the long term from Front National’s win The unprecedented success of France’s far-right Front National (FN) in Sunday’s regional elections is a symbolic victory for the party’s protectionist and anti-immigration policies. While the initial... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Banging the tin drum With exchange stocks at six-year lows and refined output falling, the tin market looks increasingly tight. However, stronger demand, which we expect in 2016, is needed for a sustained rise in prices. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) & IMACEC (Oct.) The further fall in Chilean inflation in November is an encouraging sign that price pressures in the economy are easing. While this reduces the likelihood of the central bank hiking interest rates... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela election: Opposition wins, but no big policy shift likely Venezuela’s opposition comfortably won yesterday’s legislative elections, although with 22 seats still to be declared, the size of the victory (and therefore the impact on policymaking) still hangs in... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US lumber price should recover in 2016 The price of US lumber has fallen sharply this year, despite an ongoing improvement in the US housing sector. This divergence can be explained in part by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s unexpectedly-small rise in German industrial production was another signthat GDP growth in the euro-zone’s largest economy has passed its peak. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Winners and losers from slower growth in China The combination of slowing investment alongside continued strong consumption growth in China is having a major impact on the pattern of growth in the rest of Asia. Hong Kong and Vietnam have been the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
