China Economics Update Fiscal deposit auctions could provide stimulus shot A report today suggesting that all local governments may soon be allowed to auction off their fiscal deposits deserves more attention than it has received. Such a move would have important... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan’s recession will be brief Taiwan’s economy slipped into recession last quarter as the country’s terrible export performance fed into much weaker consumer spending. However, we expect a return to growth in the fourth quarter... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts unlikely to revive capital spending Firms have responded to the sharp fall in corporate tax rates since Mr Abe returned to power by stepping up investment abroad rather than at home. With bleak demand prospects as a result of poor... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) With households the most upbeat since late 2013, the prospects for consumer spending look fairly bright. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is very timely for retailers, who will be rubbing their hands at the idea that households are becoming more willing to open their wallets ahead of... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) The pick-up in wage growth in October reflects a surge in bonus payments rather than an acceleration in base pay. The big picture remains that labour cash earnings are not rising fast enough to create... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Drag on growth from anti-graft measures easing Three years on, there is no sign that China’s anti-corruption campaign is being eased, but its drag on economic growth is fading. 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar hits agriculturals as sentiment weakens A general strengthening of the US dollar in recent weeks, on expectations that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this month, has been a key factor dragging agricultural prices lower. Along... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery regaining pace, but looking unbalanced The UK economy appears to be regaining a little momentum, but the nature of the recovery is looking quite unbalanced. The breakdown of Q3’s 0.5% quarterly rise in real GDP showed solid growth in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Oil price could jump if OPEC fails to accommodate Indonesia 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets shrug off MPC’s warnings And so another year of rock bottom interest rates is set to pass us by. It is getting on for seven years since interest rates reached 0.5% and it is over eight years since we saw an interest rate rise... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt getting to grips with its foreign currency problems Egypt’s fragile external position has come under the spotlight once again, but the latest signs are that policymakers are trying to ease foreign currency restrictions. The upshot is that a devaluation... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack High stocks put energy commodity prices under pressure The prices of most energy commodities fell in November as negative sentiment towards commodities in general, high stocks, a warm start to winter in the US and further announcements by China about... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
