Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Nov. – 1st Dec.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 18.7 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the second half of November in the main Centre-South cane-growing... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Evolving retail sector causing locational shift in Danish logistics The construction of modern logistics space along the E20 corridor, south-west of Copenhagen, is transforming the region into the destination of choice for occupiers. With demand growth set to remain... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we wrong on EM equities? The renewed slump in emerging market (EM) equities perhaps calls into question our view that they will perform well in 2016/17. But the latest declines have been driven by a fall in commodity prices... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian food inflation set to ease…but not just yet The various factors pushing up food inflation in Brazil should start to fade by Q2 2016 and, with the boost from this year’s regulated price hikes set to ease too, headline inflation is likely to... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices and Mortgage Lenders Statistics (Nov/Q3) According to the Halifax, annual house price growth slowed in November, albeit from a very high rate. That said, today’s Bank of England MLAR statistics showed LTIs rising for a second quarter, in... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) South Africa’s PGM production rose in October after three months of declines. However, labour disruptions and weak prices have forced the largest miners to restructure and cut their capital... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) After a torrid year so far, October’s industrial production figures suggest that theUK manufacturing sector should end the year in better shape. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 revealed that the slowdown in growth was driven by weaker net exports. As the boost to consumer spending growth from lower oil prices fades, we think that... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3) The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) The growing prevalence of Black Friday failed to provide much of a boost to retail sales in November. It appears sales were just shifted from the start to the end of November to take advantage of... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q3 as a result of higher domestic spending. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) The pick-up in Turkish industrial production growth in October, coming alongside an uptick in the latest business surveys, suggests that the economy continued to perform strongly in Q4. Elsewhere... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) Disappointing export data suggest that foreign demand remains subdued. More positively, a recovery in imports hints at a policy driven pick-up in domestic demand. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey dropped back even allowing for seasonal distortions, and once again points to stagnant industrial activity. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
