Latin America Economics Update Brazil: The economic consequences of impeachment As we anticipated, Brazilian markets have so far shrugged off last night’s news that impeachment proceedings will be launched against President Rousseff . As the dust settles, the biggest consequence... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (Nov.) The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index retreated to near its historic low in November, providing yet another sign that expectations of an improvement in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 11.2% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in October was even worse than September’s 10.9% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s deep recession continued at the start of Q4... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Nov.) The improvement in the Markit/CIPS services survey in November reinforces our view that the economy will reverse its temporary slowdown seen in Q3 and offsets the slowing in the manufacturing and... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) October’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer recovery might be losing some steam. But the final PMIs for November suggest that the overall economic recovery might actually have... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) The Australian economy isn’t as strong as the surge in GDP in the third quarter suggests, as a large boost to growth from net exports hides the worrying contraction in domestic demand. While GDP... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Tentative signs of Q4 growth pick-up After the further slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the third quarter, more timely survey indicators such as the composite PMI have offered tentative evidence of a renewed acceleration in Q4... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its policy rate at 0.50% today was as expected given that the economy returned to positive growth in the third quarter. Although it believes economic growth will... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack The supply response is underway Towards the end of November, there were a number of announcements of supply cuts from China’s metal producers. In particular, producers of nickel and zinc pledged to cut output by 20% next year, while... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks grew again last week despite strong growth in refinery inputs, as a surge in imports overwhelmed higher demand. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack PM prices slump on strong dollar and China fears The prices of the major precious metals continued to fall in November, weighed down by the strength of the US dollar and persistent concerns over a hard landing in China. While demand and supply... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rents in Switzerland have further to fall The latest data from Switzerland show that the removal of the euro exchange rate ceiling has taken its toll on the economy, and we expect that there is further weakness to come. Accordingly, even with... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
