Global Economics Update Recovery falters, except in the US The latest business surveys suggest the pick-up in activity early this year has softened almost everywhere, except the US, as the PMIs dropped back in most advanced and emerging economies in February. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: 2013 budget doesn't fully restore fiscal credibility We doubt that Ghana’s fiscal deficit will fall as quickly as the Finance Ministry seems to expect in its 2013 Budget Statement. Coupled with the fact that growth is now picking up, this means that... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What next for Italy? More than a week after the general election, the political situation in Italy remains as uncertain as ever. With potentially months of political and economic deadlock ahead, we continue to expect... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Chilean consumer can’t keep driving economic growth Chilean consumer spending is growing at an unsustainable pace and needs to cool if the economy is to avoid storing up problems for the future. We expect to see a gradual moderation in spending this... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recession risks remain The economy is still flirting with a further contraction in GDP in the first quarter. Indeed, the weighted average of the three CIPS surveys in February suggested on the basis of past form that output... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cobalt: the Capital Economics view Cobalt is being added to our coverage of industrial metals from today. The price of cobalt is barely a quarter of the highs seen in March 2008, which might suggest that there is plenty of upside if... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The FLS is giving smaller lenders a helping hand Smaller mortgage lenders are continuing to take market share from the established big lenders. Primarily, this reflects most big lenders consciously reducing the size of their mortgage books after... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation close to peaking Inflation in Russia rose to an 18-month high of 7.3% y/y in February but is now close to peaking. As it falls back over the coming months, interest rates are likely to be cut. Nonetheless, the room... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan. 13) House prices rose strongly at the start of 2013 and are likely to perform well across the year as a whole. This is set to be another tear-away year for the housing recovery. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Matolcsy could turn his attention to Hungary's FX debt burden Events during the first few days of Gyorgy Matolcsy’s Governorship of Hungary’s central bank reinforce concerns about the Bank’s independence. At the very least, we are likely to see further interest... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMI Survey (Feb.) January’s rise in euro-zone retail sales and the fall in the composite PMI in February add to evidence that while the recession in the region is slowing, it is not over. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Mergers and Acquisitions (Q4 12) Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity slumped at the end of 2012. This obviously hasn’t pulled the rug out from under the Central London office markets, but will nevertheless have been a restraint... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's economy still in the doldrums February’s PMIs suggest that the Egyptian economy remains in the doldrums against a backdrop of continued civil unrest. By contrast, the Gulf economies appear on course to grow at a healthy pace. 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb. 13) The slight improvement in February’s CIPS/Markit report on services could well be the decisive factor that prevents the MPC from restarting its quantitative easing programme this week. But the... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Higher inflation not necessarily good news for workers The year-on-year increase in labour cash earnings in January was flattered by late payments of winter bonuses. Underlying wage growth is still negative, meaning that households have been relying on... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) On the face of it, February’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggested that a resurgence in consumer spending is underway. But temporary factors can likely explain much of that month’s strong growth. At... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
