Latin America Economics Update Mexico rate cut likely to be a one-off Today’s cut in Mexican interest rates was a surprise, particularly in light of further evidence that the US economy is strengthening. We suspect that it was a one-off and do not think it marks the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey & Housing Starts (Feb.) February's 50,700 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was +8,000) is a big surprise given how weak GDP growth has been recently. Even after taking into account the 21,900 jobs lost in January... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) February's Employment Report isn't a game changer, but it adds to the evidence from the upbeat ISM surveys released earlier this week that, despite the expiry of the payroll tax cut, higher gasoline... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy-wide deleveraging may be over The economy-wide deleveraging process, which has constrained the economic recovery over the past four years, may now be over. Moreover, as any remaining deleveraging in the household sector can be... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s German industrial production figures added to the evidence that the economy entered 2013 in a better state than it ended 2012. But for the time being at least, growth seems to be modest at... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will Chinese demand rescue commodity prices? There have been many conflicting signals recently on the prospects for China’s demand for commodities. Indeed, the February trade data, released earlier today, could be spun either positively or... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Over the past decade, fluctuations in the South African rand seem to have been driven primarily by changes in global risk appetite. But while risk appetite has improved over the past six months, the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4) Q4’s Icelandic GDP data confirmed that the economy is slowly recovering from its financial crisis. But while Iceland looks set to continue to outperform the peripheral euro-zone economies this year... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand strong from overseas but appears weaker at home China’s exports were far stronger than expected last month. By contrast, import growth remains slow. In particular, the recent acceleration in domestic activity has done little to boost commodity... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: weaker currency bolsters case for holding rates The Peruvian Central Bank (BCRP) has deployed a raft of measures to combat currency appreciation in early 2013 and for the moment, at least, appears to be succeeding in its efforts. With the nuevo sol... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q4 12) Q4’s Icelandic GDP data confirmed that the economy is slowly recovering from its financial crisis. But while Iceland looks set to continue to outperform the peripheral euro-zone economies this year... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market as overvalued as Equity Q suggests? Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve suggests that the stock market is significantly overvalued by historical standards. We think the degree of overvaluation is much less than... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market recovery far from guaranteed Positive news on the housing market in the past few months has led to some renewed optimism that the market may be turning the corner. But more recent data serve to highlight that this optimism may be... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB hints at limited support at best While some members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council voted for an interest rate cut today, the majority still seems unconvinced that this would do any good. What’s more, the Bank... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Still gaining momentum Rebounding household formation and continued investor interest will help housing demand rise further this year. And while supply conditions will stop tightening, they will remain very tight. The... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
