Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK build its way to a recovery? The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) January's external trade data bodes well for first-quarter real GDP growth, which we anticipate will increase by 1.5% annualised. Other data released this morning also shows that January's residential... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Why are office rents more volatile in Madrid than Barcelona? In each of the previous two cycles, office rents rose much further in Madrid than Barcelona. But there is nothing to suggest that structural features of the Madrid market lie behind the more volatile... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan. 13) The rebound in the trade deficit to $44.4bn in January, from $38.1bn in December of last year, was a bit bigger than expected (consensus forecast was $42.6bn) and suggests that net external trade will... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Falling commodity prices to push inflation lower Average inflation in advanced economies was below 2% y/y in January and we expect it to decline further over the course of the year. Global demand should be fairly weak, not least due to the recession... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Ireland and Portugal need OMTs? Ireland and Portugal’s relative success in achieving fiscal targets and regaining access to financial markets has raised hopes about the sustainability of their public finances, particularly after... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC stays its hand, for now Although the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left policy on hold again today, we expect that it will not take much to swing a majority of members in support of more stimulus in the near future. While... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally losing steam The rally in Emerging Europe’s financial markets has lost steam over the past few weeks. In part, this is due to the re-surfacing of tensions in the euro-zone following Italy’s inconclusive general... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia under little pressure to hike rates Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) held its overnight rate at 3.0% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. Despite a pick-up in GDP growth, there is little pressure on BNM to hike rates in 2013. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the pound's stabilisation comes at a price The Egyptian pound has stabilised since the beginning of February. But this doesn’t reflect an improvement in Egypt’s economic fundamentals. Rather it is the result of tighter capital controls. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil paves the way for policy tightening Brazil left interest rates unchanged last night but the accompanying statement suggested that without fresh evidence that inflation pressures are easing, policy will be tightened at the next month’s... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan awaits Kuroda but will surely move in April The Bank of Japan’s decision to leave policy on hold today was widely expected in the light of the leadership changes due later this month. Two Board members did propose tweaks to the framework which... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb. 13) Inflation will have spiked higher last month because of price rises ahead of Chinese New Year, but it should drop back in March. Looking further ahead, inflation is likely to rise but we think the... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
