Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank signals end of easing cycle Today’s larger-than-expected cut in Polish interest rates means that we have probably reached the end of the easing cycle. But while some analysts are now suggesting that interest rates will be hiked... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation adds to pressure on the ECB February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.8% brought it back below the ECB’s 2% “ceiling” for the first time since November 2010. While much of the recent drop reflects slowing energy inflation... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Chavez's passing mean for oil prices? The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, is unlikely to have a significant impact on global oil markets in the short term, although this impact could yet be in either direction. Over the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Potential student loan losses are not a systemic concern Rapidly rising delinquency rates have made us more concerned about the quadrupling in student loan debt over the past decade to £1trn. But we still don’t think this poses a major threat to the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The increase in mortgage interest rates in February weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase and took some heat out of the refinancing boom. But rates are still very low and will continue to... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 12) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in the fourth quarter revealed an increasingly broad-based decline. Timelier indicators still point to another contraction in GDP in Q1 despite their recent improvement. 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets holding their nerve as Kenya delays election results Kenya’s parliamentary and presidential elections have so far passed relatively peacefully, helping to keep markets calm amid news that the results have been delayed due to technical problems. But the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Four years of 0.5% rates - at least another two to go Tomorrow’s MPC meeting marks the fourth anniversary of official interest rates reaching their record low of just 0.5% in March 2009. We doubt that they will rise before the second half of 2015 at the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Death of Chavez increases uncertainty in Venezuela The death of the Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, comes at a time when there are already mounting concerns about the outlook for the economy. His preferred successor, Nicolas Maduro, will probably... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Returning to growth The second estimate of Japan’s Q4 GDP, due on Friday (8th), is likely to show that the economy was not quite as weak as initially thought at the end of last year. In fact, there is a good chance that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb. 13) House prices increased in February, with the annual rate of growth the highest in 2½ years. But market fundamentals argue against a sustained improvement. 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How strong is the case for distribution warehouses? We are wary of claims that changes in the nation’s shopping habits will drive a large, positive step-shift in the relative performance of distribution warehouses. Nevertheless, the combination of... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's economy is running short of drivers Australia’s economy retained good momentum in Q4, despite a downturn in private investment. The outlook for the next two years hinges on the strength of non-mining sectors as the mining boom cools. We... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can the yen still be a safe haven? The yen’s safe haven status has been challenged by expectations of aggressive monetary expansion by the Bank of Japan and the swing in Japan’s trade balance from surplus to deficit. However, even if... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada's exporters struggling to tap US recovery Canada's economy grew by only 0.7% annualised over the second half of last year, with a decline in exports subtracting almost 2 percentage points from annualised GDP. The recent lacklustre pace of non... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
