UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan. 13) Net commercial property lending by banks and building societies was negative again in January and we doubt that this trend will come to an end anytime soon. However, at least “new” lenders, e.g... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) & Mortgage Lending (Jan. 13) Today’s housing market data highlight the risk that the renewed optimism towards the market which has been evident in recent weeks may be running ahead of itself. The broadly flat picture for house... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update February PMIs show continued weakness The February PMIs for emerging Asia were weak, with little sign of upward momentum across the region. Despite policy easing at home, the uncertain outlook for the developed world means Asia’s... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4 12) Q4’s Swedish GDP numbers confirmed that the robust recovery has fizzled out. But Sweden should still perform far better than the euro-zone and most of its neighbours in 2013. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from Hungary's new Bank governor The decision to nominate Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy to become Hungary’s new central bank governor is another blow to the Bank’s independence and is likely to result in further interest rate cuts... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs data point to rebound in growth in Q1 February’s PMI data add to recent evidence that the slump in Emerging Europe has bottomed out and that growth in the first quarter of this year should be an improvement on the final quarter of 2012... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb. 13) Seasonal factors may have played a part, but the weakness of China’s two manufacturing PMIs last month cannot entirely be explained by the timing of Chinese New Year. They suggest that the economic... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q4 12) Q4’s Swedish GDP numbers confirmed that the robust recovery has fizzled out. But Sweden should still perform far better than the euro-zone and most of its neighbours in 2013. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the deleveraging process over? Five years after the financial crisis, there is growing optimism that the world economy is finally on the mend. However, the deleveraging process is far from complete. Further public sector austerity... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Support for Italy would come with strings attached The renewed deterioration in some indicators of economic activity and fears about the political situation in Italy should prompt the ECB to strike a softer tone after its next meeting. President... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector driving Nigeria's economy The Nigerian economy returned to trend growth in Q4 on account of a strong performance in the non-oil sector. Nevertheless, with the oil sector continuing to drag on headline growth and inflation now... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Sterling's fall not supported by economic outlook Concerns about the MPC’s commitment to its inflation target, weakening expectations for UK GDP growth relative to elsewhere and the loss of the triple-A credit rating have all weakened the pound since... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty to push Italy deeper into recession The Italian economy’s dire end to 2012, combined with the growing likelihood of a long period of political deadlock, supports our long-held view that the consensus outlook for Italy is too optimistic... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget: further deficit reduction tough to achieve Today’s budget statement reveals that India’s central government has been able to lower its fiscal deficit from 5.7% of GDP a year ago to 5.2% in the current fiscal year. It appears determined to go... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain may still be the first to need OMTs While the euro-zone spotlight has recently switched to Italy, the latest economic news from Spain suggests that it might still be first to require the support of the ECB’s bond-buying programme. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
