US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) January's durable goods report is a lot better than the 5.2% m/m drop in headline orders suggests, even after factoring in the downward revision to December's gain, which was trimmed to 3.7% m/m from... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update “Abe trade” losing its appeal The partial rebound in the yen and latest wobble in the Nikkei may simply be a pause in the trends of weakness in the Japanese currency and associated strength in equities, which would not be unusual... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the Italian election disabled the ECB’s bazooka? The renewed rise in Italian and other government bond yields following the inconclusive result of the Italian general election has raised questions over the continued effectiveness of the European... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External fragilities remain high in the non-Gulf economies Political unrest is increasing balance of payments strains across the region’s resource-poor economies. Egypt has grabbed the headlines, but there are also external financing concerns in Jordan and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa struggling to match its regional peers South African Q4 GDP surprised on the upside but, 2009 aside, sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) largest economy still grew at its slowest pace for over a decade over the course of last year as a whole... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A last hurrah for Venezuela’s economy Venezuela outperformed most of Latin America last year, but the economy is likely to slow sharply in 2013. In fact, we still think that it could enter recession this year. And a period of lower oil... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) February’s rise in the euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed that sentiment was rising – before the Italian election. But the recent bout of market uncertainty may lead to renewed... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to the private sector continued to contract and seems unlikely to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch What might Mr Kuroda do differently? The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (7th March) will of course be overshadowed by the imminent departure of Governor Shirakawa and his two Deputies... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending shows some signs of life Real household spending increased unexpectedly in Q4 of last year, leaving annual growth at 1.5%, the strongest rate since Q3 2010. This rise was particularly impressive given the downward impetus to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy finished 2012 on a weak footing. And with signs that activity has struggled to pick up at the start of 2013, a triple-dip recession can still... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Outlook improves, but downside risks remain Growth in Emerging Europe sank to a post-crisis low in the final quarter of 2012 but the latest surveys suggest that the outlook has brightened a little since the turn of the year. We expect growth to... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for sterling? We think the biggest falls in the pound may now be behind us. Granted, Moody’s decision to strip the UK of its AAA rating drove the currency down even further early on Monday. But sterling was fairly... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of recovery in Hong Kong, but risks to downside Hong Kong’s economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in Q4, thanks mainly to a pick up in export growth. Prospects for the economy depend largely on the outlook for global demand. As such... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US banks well placed to boost lending further The FDIC’s banking profile for the fourth quarter of last year shows that US banks are well placed to continue boosting lending to both firms and households. At the same time, there is not much... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
