Europe Economics Update Fears about German wage growth are overdone The recent rise in German wage growth and signs of a further increase to come have prompted fears of a pick-up in inflation and loss of competitiveness. We think that these worries are overdone... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Overall EM inflows not at danger levels but country risks remain Capital flows to emerging economies are not yet running at a rate that should be a major cause for concern. But estimates of flows in aggregate miss some of the key risks facing individual economies. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices data provide a timely reminder that, even though it is now four years since the Fed first started expanding its balance sheet, there are few signs that inflation is becoming... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed about to take the punch bowl away? Despite the uncertainty created by the latest FOMC minutes, we do not believe that the Fed will be in any hurry to halt its additional asset purchases completely. Nonetheless, the reaction in the... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jan.) Stripping out the one-off factors affecting the numbers, January’s public finances figures revealed a modest improvement on last year’s outturn. But the big picture is still that the downward progress... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The fall in the composite euro-zone PMI in February puts a dent in hopes that the region will emerge from recession in the first quarter. 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries cutting back oil production The Gulf economies cut back oil production towards the end of last year against the backdrop of the weakening global economy. But while the hydrocarbon sector may be a drag on growth in 2013, it looks... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The EC consumer confidence survey rose for the third consecutive month in February in line with the general pick up in sentiment across the euro-zone. But the survey remains consistent with further... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling’s slide reflects more than the “Carney short” While some of the pound’s recent fall probably reflects expected changes in monetary policy – the so-called “Carney short” – it has also reflected the growing view that the UK’s economic outlook is... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Falling house prices setting a precedent for further declines National home prices have been in decline for five consecutive months and we anticipate further declines this year, as potential buyers are scared off by the prospect of capital losses. We standby our... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed contemplating early end to QE3 The minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting in late January suggest that rising fears over the potential costs from further quantitative easing could prompt Fed officials to reduce or even halt the... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks medium-term deficiencies A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next two years. But an overreliance on the hydrocarbons sector, coupled with perennial concerns over... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Do we really need 240,000 new homes a year? Claims that we need 240,000 new homes a year are based on household projections which have significantly underestimated average household size. The provisional 2011 Census results strongly suggest... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan. 13) January’s large drop in housing starts isn’t as bad as the headline numbers suggest. And with housing starts still significantly below normal levels, there is plenty of scope for strong gains later... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
