Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: slowdown deepens The raft of activity data for January suggests that the slowdown in the Russian economy deepened at the start of this year. But while this will add to pressure on the Central Bank to start easing... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in a Catch-22 Although the Turkish central bank cut interest rates today, it also raised reserve requirements, so the overall impact on monetary conditions is ambiguous. The key point is that policymakers are in a... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Negative rates: lessons from Denmark The Danish central bank’s use of negative interest rates provides an insight into one of the few untried tools still available to major central banks. Denmark’s experience suggests that negative rates... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Have the peripheral economies regained competitiveness? Official figures appear to suggest that the peripheral countries are successfully restoring competitiveness through internal devaluation. Since peaking in 2008/09, whole economy unit labour costs... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German exports to outperform despite stronger euro The recent rise in the euro exchange rate is likely to hit Germany and Finland hardest given their strong trade links with non-euro-zone countries. But with exports from the south and periphery set to... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay to fall for longer Recent developments have darkened the outlook for inflation and therefore imply that the squeeze on real pay is likely to persist to the very end of 2013. The recent rise in oil prices suggests that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are Gilts vulnerable to a further rise in inflation expectations? The recent rise in UK Gilt yields has been more than accounted for by a surge in breakeven inflation rates. However, we continue to expect long-run inflation expectations, and hence nominal Gilt... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update G20 doubles up on familiar messages The fall-out from an extended period of monetary expansion in the US and Japan will continue to ripple around the global financial system, not least in the form of capital flows to emerging markets... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4's dismal data a mix of euro-zone and domestic problems The dire set of Q4 GDP data released across Central & South Eastern Europe over the past week or so has led to obvious questions as to how the region is being affected by the crisis in the euro-zone... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican slowdown confined to industrial sector Mexican fourth quarter GDP data suggest that despite the weakness of industry in the final months of last year, domestically focussed sectors have taken up the slack. We expect the economy to grow by... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should office and retail yields in Oslo be lower? The outperformance of the Norwegian economy is evident in above-average growth in office and retail rental values, but not in initial yields. However, rather than being a sign that property in Oslo is... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's strong growth lessens urgency to cut rates Thailand’s Q4 GDP data suggest that the economy ended last year on a strong note, which lessens the urgency for policy settings to be loosened. However, we expect the economy to slow later this year... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador gambles on a third Correa term Rafael Correa’s emphatic victory in yesterday’s Ecuadorian Presidential Election looks to have breathed new life into a Latin American left which has suffered a series of setbacks in recent months... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
