UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4 12) A further decline in the number of properties possessed by lenders is good news for households. But with real earnings continuing to fall, more borrowers are likely to fall into arrears over the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slide back into recession bad news but old news The small contraction in Q4 and revisions to back data mean that Japanese GDP fell in each of the last three quarters of 2012. However, more timely monthly indicators and surveys already show that the... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Buy-To-Let Lending (Q4 12) The BTL lending market showed further signs of recovery in the final stages of last year. This year, the low level of interest rates and the prospect of healthy tenant demand both argue that further... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Current account bottoming out China’s current account surplus edged up last year both in dollar terms and relative to the size of the global economy. We suspect that further increases lie ahead as China’s investment spending slows... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update GDP growth sinks to post-crisis low The raft of Q4 GDP data released today for Emerging Europe suggests that growth in the region sank to a post-2009 low of 0.8% y/y. An improvement in sentiment within the euro-zone should feed through... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s central bank likely to cut ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate at 2.75% today, as was widely expected. Korea’s economic slowdown has bottomed out, but we think growth is unlikely to rebound strongly and that inflation... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US equities vulnerable to a rise in labour’s share of the pie 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fundamentals better, but downside risks remain The outlook for the US economy is improving and, although first-quarter GDP growth will be hit by the expiry of the payroll tax cut, growth should climb back to around 2.5% annualised in the second... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank is in a bind While the State Bank of Pakistan may wish to cut rates further to stimulate the economy, there is a growing risk that the central bank will be forced into tightening policy instead. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A sceptical view on "currency wars" Talk of “currency wars” continues to dominate the headlines despite the efforts of the G7. Indeed, the latest official comments appear to have added to the confusion. This Update summarises the six... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still a possibility in Ghana The recent slowdown in both growth and inflation in Ghana suggest that rates cuts are a possibility this year, but concerns over currency weakness and twin deficits mean that significant easing is... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Monetary Indicators (Feb.) Recent data underline that, other than in the US, very loose monetary policy is still not translating into faster credit growth. 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation Report highlights squeeze on real pay Today’s figures from the ONS highlight how employees’ real earnings have fallen to levels last seen in 2003. And the Bank of England’s February Inflation Report suggested that the squeeze on... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) It is mildly encouraging that consumption in January did not capitulate completely after the recent tax hikes. And while higher taxes and the latest leap in gasoline prices could yet hit sales harder... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) The Bank of England has presented another gloomy Inflation Report, showing inflation projected to be stronger over the next couple of years even though the recovery is still expected to be sluggish... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
