US Chart Pack Rising gasoline prices another blow for households The surge in retail gasoline prices to $3.80 per gallon, from $3.40 only a month ago, will put more pressure on households who are already struggling to cope with the expiry of the payroll tax cut... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Too soon to call time on the bull market in gold Despite the recent weakness, we continue to expect the price of gold to reach new record highs of $2,000 per ounce later this year as global monetary policy remains supportive, the crisis in Europe... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has the EC softened its stance on austerity? Recent hints that the European Commission could grant further extensions to governments that are missing their deficit targets provide hope that the Commission will not force austerity regardless of... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rating downgrade underlines economic weakness Moody’s downgrade of UK government debt from Aaa to Aa1 is unlikely to prompt any major changes to the Government’s fiscal plans, but underlines the weak outlook for the economy. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will housing equity withdrawal return this year? Rising house prices, more home sales, and a slight loosening in credit conditions should see housing equity withdrawal turn positive in 2013 or soon after. Nevertheless, the amount of equity extracted... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget focuses on productivity Today’s FY 2013 budget focused on raising medium-term growth by boosting productivity. The government resisted short-term pump priming but, with unemployment low and a number of today’s measures... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan. 13) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in January, the first decline for six months. While the bad weather didn’t help matters, this is a timely reminder that the recent pick-up in housing market... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide reality check on strength of global recovery The decline in the flash manufacturing PMI for China in February, reported today, is the latest sign that the pick-up in global manufacturing may be faltering. The equivalent US and euro-zone data... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Low inflation leaves room for more rate cuts A combination of weak economic growth and low inflation suggest that Colombian interest rates have further to fall. We now expect a further 50bps of cuts to 3.25% over the coming months. 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb. 13) Today’s worse-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI from HSBC and Markit dampens hopes of a continued economic acceleration. Even allowing for distortions around Chinese New Year, it appears that the... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: tighter fiscal policy would help to rebalance economy Peru’s economy expanded by a healthy 5.9% y/y in Q4, however growth continues to be heavily dependent on domestic demand. In the current environment of improved global risk appetite, there is a risk... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy grinding to a standstill? We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will financial stability concerns force the Fed to curb QE3? In light of last week's revelations in the minutes from January's FOMC meeting, Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony this week will be watched particularly closely for any signs that he is... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly More QE still worth a shot We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
