Asia Chart Pack Regional recovery continues Economic activity across emerging Asia is showing further signs of recovery. Growth has been strongest in South East Asia, where domestic demand has continued to shrug off the impact of weak exports... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Earnings growth won’t take off Our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 175,000 in February, which would leave employment growing at much the same pace as in recent months. Without a meaningful acceleration in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Feb.) February’s fall in German CPI inflation should ease fears of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone’s largest economy despite the continued fall in unemployment. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jan. 13) January’s house price data provide little evidence that the modest improvement in national house price indices in recent months has become any less reliant on the strength of London. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Bottoming out GDP data released over the past month showed that growth in Emerging Europe slumped to a postcrisis low of just 0.8% y/y in the final quarter of last year. Nonetheless, the latest surveys suggest that... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jan.) Yesterday’s US appeals court hearing has arguably increased the risk of a fresh Argentine debt default. But in the real economy, at least, there are signs that things are improving. An uptick in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Industry recovering but still plenty for Kuroda to do The smaller-than-expected increase in industrial production in January is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery in Japan, and perhaps in global activity too. The output projections made by firms... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q4) The Danish economy contracted sharply at the end of 2012 as both weak domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis weighed heavily on economic activity. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Housing still on unsustainable path A slowdown in property construction was the main reason that China’s economy slowed last year. Even so, the sector remains on an unsustainable path. It may be years before policymakers can sensibly... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 13) Swiss GDP data for Q4 confirmed that, while growth is clearly slowing, the economy has continued to outperform most others in Europe. But we expect the economy to stagnate this year as problems in the... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) February’s unchanged level of consumer confidence is consistent with evidence from the CBI’s Distributive Trades survey that the consumer sector is lacking momentum. Whether last week’s credit rating... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q4 12) The Danish economy contracted sharply at the end of 2012 as both weak domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis weighed heavily on economic activity. 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Do solid Q4 spending data signal a brighter retail rent outlook? The rise in real consumer spending in Q4 last year was the fifth in succession and, at face value, looks favourable for retail occupier demand. It is also encouraging that the adverse effects of... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation postponed again The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit for the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
