UK Economics Weekly Negative interest rates back on the agenda Attention last week turned swiftly from the UK’s downgrade to Paul Tucker’s comments about negative interest rates. Even if the MPC does not actually go down this route, it is heartening that even... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses shrugging off fiscal uncertainty The sequestration spending cuts will probably only remain in place for a couple of months until Congress reaches a wider budget agreement, so the overall impact on the economy should be modest. More... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the crisis back? Having swum against the tide of increased optimism towards the euro-zone for some months, we are wary of the temptation to leap on last week’s events in Italy as a vindication of our position. After... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly ASEAN to slow, but it will remain a bright spot Weak global trade held back growth across most of Asia last year. But strong domestic demand helped much of South East Asia outperform. Not only did Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month high of 54.2 in February, from 53.1, suggests that US producers are undeterred by the fragile recovery in overseas manufacturing activity, for now... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2012) Canada's economic slowdown over the second half of last year and uncertain prospects ahead put additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to completely abandon its tightening bias next week. Given the... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending (Jan.) Households absorbed the large drop in income in January by reducing their saving rather than their spending. But the effects of the payroll tax hike and the latest surge in gasoline prices will... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's recovery remains lacklustre Brazil’s recovery grinds on, but the pace of growth is still disappointingly sluggish. Unless or until investment becomes a bigger part of the economy, growth is likely to be lacklustre and inflation... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) Ostensibly, January’s household borrowing figures suggested that that the pick-up in credit growth seen in recent months is tailing off. However, the bad weather in January is likely to have played a... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 13) Growth of the broad money supply turned up in January, although we suspect that seasonal effects may have played a role. Meanwhile, bank lending remains weak although it is probably still too soon for... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still facing big challenges The South African manufacturing PMI ticked up in February, but the overall sluggishness of export demand and problems in the domestic supply chain means the sector still faces significant challenges... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the further rise in unemployment in January raised the chances of further policy action by the ECB. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Feb.) & Mortgage Approvals (Jan.) February’s CIPS manufacturing survey added to evidence that it is touch and go whether the economy has avoided entering a triple-dip recession. 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging European property continues to lose its shine The relatively strong performance of Emerging European property markets in 2011 was not repeated in 2012. The softening economic backdrop did little to support rental growth, while yields appear to... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish slowdown coming to an end The turnaround in the latest Polish data suggests that weak GDP growth in Q4 could mark the trough of the economic slowdown. This will no doubt lead to speculation that the National Bank’s easing... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
