Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Russia's new central bank governor The decision by President Putin to nominate his economic advisor, Elvira Nabiullina, to be the next governor of the Central Bank of Russia is a blow to hopes for a more independent monetary policy... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics (Q4 12) According to the FSA, gross mortgage lending declined in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. That provides further evidence that the FLS has yet to boost mortgage lending, despite the continual... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate cutting cycle has probably ended The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 9.50% today and, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for concern, we think this marks... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Supply of homes nears record low At 2.07m, the inventory of homes for sale fell to its lowest level since 1994 in January, and is the sixth lowest level ever recorded in the 30-year history of the data. With home sales now at a... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have the risks of a fall in Prague retail rents receded? After a difficult year, yesterday’s report of an uptick in Czech consumer spending is welcome news for retailers. But the outlook for spending is subdued, while the supply of new retail space is... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: political unrest and weak euro-zone dim outlook Continued political turmoil and the ongoing recession in the euro-zone will weigh on growth in Tunisia this year. Over the longer-term, however, if the political situation calms down and structural... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has "Dr. Copper" lost his touch? The divergence between the strength of the prices of equities and the weakness of the prices of industrial metals, including copper, does not necessarily tell us anything new about the sustainability... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's industrial recovery remains fragile, rate cut likely Better-than-expected industrial production data have provided some cause for market cheer in India. However, a close look at the data underlines how fragile the recovery remains. We continue to expect... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What impact will sterling's drop have on retailers' profits? Sterling’s fall has clouded the outlook for retailers’ profits by pushing up import prices. However, their profitability should still improve over the next year or two thanks to the fading of other... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's external vulnerabilities on the rise again After a steady improvement over the past year, the narrowing of Turkey’s current account deficit stalled in January. What’s more, the latest data reveal an increasing dependence on short-term or “hot”... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Housing Market Survey (Feb. 13) Housing market activity continues to improve. But prices are still falling and if anything, given record low mortgage rates, the recovery has been disappointing. 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The new "Growth Stars" - which EMs are set to shine? As the BRICs enter a period of slower growth, new emerging market “growth stars” will come to the fore. We are particularly upbeat on the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and South East Asia. But... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What has happened to the property market cycle? The current IPF Consensus forecasts envisage that capital values will do little more than mark time for an unprecedented seven years. Yet this is not a sign that the property market cycle has been... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s economy may be faltering even sooner than we thought 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Grain prices still have further to fall as supply fears ease The prices of all the major US grains have already fallen significantly from their peaks last summer, but we expect them to decline further during 2013. 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
