The economy is still flirting with a further contraction in GDP in the first quarter. Indeed, the weighted average of the three CIPS surveys in February suggested on the basis of past form that output will flatline in Q1 at best. Granted, unusually bad weather reportedly knocked the manufacturing and construction sectors, so the economy may end the quarter on a stronger note. But a material improvement soon remains unlikely, given that the inflation squeeze on consumers is intensifying, overseas demand for exports is fading and another round of austerity begins in April.
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