UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr. 13) The Halifax reports that house prices continued to rise in April, and at a fairly strong pace. But other housing market data are not so positive, and taken together that suggests prices are just... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will be forced into a cut by end-2013 The Norges Bank left interest rates unchanged today as concerns about rising household debt once again outweighed the need to weaken the currency and boost inflation. But our expectation for the euro... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Equity market surge continues The yen fell sharply against the US dollar immediately after the Bank of Japan announced its aggressive monetary easing on 4th April, while equity markets surged. Equities have continued to rise over... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rates unlikely to fall further The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100bp to 8.50% today but, with inflation having bottomed out and the current account deficit still a cause for... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr. 13) Consumer price inflation probably picked up last month, due to a rebound in vegetable prices. Further increases lie ahead. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar. 13) The further rise in house prices in March may prompt further concerns that prices are entering bubble territory. But a closer look suggests that it would take several more years of prices increasing... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Retailers could be shifting to part-time employment The evidence is far from conclusive, but the recent decline in average weekly hours worked, particularly in the retail sector, may be partly explained by employers cutting hours to avoid paying the... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers starting to feel the strain The recent slump in retail sales in Brazil probably overstates the true weakness of consumer spending. Nonetheless, putting to one side the volatility of the monthly data, there are signs that Brazil... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian cabinet reshuffle doesn't change bigger picture The reshuffle of Egypt’s cabinet, including a complete overhaul of the government’s economic team, doesn’t change the bigger picture that achieving support from across the political spectrum for much... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is it true that Germany can’t afford bail-outs? A recent ECB survey suggested that German households are much less wealthy than those in the eurozone’s south and periphery. There are several reasons why this is untrue. But unfavourable coverage in... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The squeeze continues The squeeze on consumers’ real pay will intensify even further over the next few months. Thereafter it should abate, although sub-par rates of spending growth are likely to continue for some time. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch King unlikely to get his way before he leaves Mervyn King looks unlikely to get his wish for more asset purchases fulfilled before he leaves at the end of June. Hopes therefore rest on Mr Carney spurring the Committee into action when he arrives... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs suggest growth divisions widening April’s PMI data paint a familiar picture of continued economic weakness in Egypt and continued rapid growth in the Gulf. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s French industrial production and trade data suggest that the economic situation is not quite as bad as the surveys might have you believe. Nonetheless, it seems very likely that France... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish banks more exposed to external shock than in 2008 In spite of the rapid build up of Turkish banks’ foreign currency assets held at the central bank, we think the country’s banking sector is still more vulnerable to an external shock now than it was... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
