UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Apr. 13) April’s CIPS manufacturing survey offers a glimmer of hope that the sector’s recession might be coming to an end. But stagnation, rather than outright expansion, may be the best that manufacturers can... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr. 13) The very slight drop in house prices recorded in April points to a housing market holding its ground. While prices in London are likely to see some further gains in coming months, prices for the UK as... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Oil prices to resume declines despite policy "stimulus" The price of crude has recovered a little in the last few days, but hopes of a significant boost from a further loosening in global monetary policy are overdone. We are also sceptical of assertions... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The sharp rebound in April's Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence to 68.1, from an upwardly revised 61.9 in March, was driven by the decline in gasoline prices and the continued rally in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey too optimistic about Spanish investment market The sharp rise in Spanish commercial property investment demand reported in Q1’s RICS Global Commercial Property Survey could reflect anticipation that capital values are now close to a floor. But... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller (Q1/Feb) Some 14 months after the trough in house prices, the homeownership rate is still declining. In other words, although there are some signs that conventional, mortgage-dependent buyers are playing more... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) In 2012, most of the peripheral economies made decent inroads into their budget deficits. But the fiscal consolidation process is far from over. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The bigger than expected 0.3% m/m increase in Canada's monthly GDP for February, alongside the upward revision to January's gain, suggests that first-quarter GDP growth was at least 2% annualised. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Headline PCE inflation to slip below 1% The latest fall in gasoline prices will soon drag headline PCE inflation below 1%. With core PCE inflation set to remain only just above 1.0%, the Fed is likely to become more concerned by the subdued... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest money and lending figures contained a few positive signs that the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) is having a positive impact on borrowing, including the first rise in lending to SMEs in... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update More countries joining the eurobond rush Sub-Saharan Africa’s eurobond markets hit the headlines again in April when Rwanda became the latest country to issue foreign currency debt. And with much of the region continuing to enjoy low yields... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Mar.) March’s household borrowing figures saw a continuation of the modest expansion of credit seen in recent months. But there remains little sign of any move back to the pace of borrowing seen prior to... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) & Unemployment (Mar.) April’s drop in euro-zone inflation and the further rise in unemployment in March have added to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Would deflation lead the periphery into a debt trap? If the peripheral euro-zone economies regained competitiveness via outright deflation, their public and private sector debt levels would spiral higher as a share of GDP, prompting disaster. 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
