Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can we trust Chile's inflation data? There appears to be some truth to claims that discrepancies in Chile’s consumer price data have lowered inflation artificially. Even so, the overall impact on headline CPI has been relatively small... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak industry and low inflation to trigger Polish rate cut April’s PMIs show signs of a renewed downturn in manufacturing in Central Europe. And tempting as it is to blame the weakness of German industry, it looks like domestic factors are playing a role too... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Solid but unspectacular start to the year for investment The early signs are that the European commercial property investment market got off to a fairly solid start to the year. Transactions were up in annual terms and in line with a five-year average. But... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker oil production to weigh on Gulf growth We expect oil production in the Gulf to remain lower this year than in 2012, which will be a drag on annual GDP growth. But even so, we don’t think it will lead to a collapse in overall economic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update April PMIs point toward soft recovery The May PMIs for emerging Asia suggest the manufacturing recovery is still struggling for momentum. Importantly, new export orders faltered this month. Loose monetary policy will only partly... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider renminbi trading band would be empty gesture A wider trading band for the renminbi is a likely next step in currency policy reform. But it may not happen as soon as many think and, in any case, would probably make little difference to the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Falling oil prices highlight Norway’s long-term problems Due to Norway’s much-lauded fiscal rules, the recent fall in oil prices will have little impact on the economy’s bright near-term outlook. Nonetheless, Norway’s growing dependence on hydrocarbons... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodity and equity markets diverge further The prices of most major commodities fell in April due to growing concerns about the health of the global economy (and the early signs are that this weakness is continuing, for much the same reasons... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures building Deflationary pressures in the euro-zone economy are continuing to intensify. While April’s drop in CPI inflation to just 1.2% was partly down to energy and Easter timing effects, underlying price... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slowdown in global economic growth appears to have hit American manufacturers in April. The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 50.7 in April, from 51.3 in March, erasing almost all of the gain... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) Another downbeat data release, this time of China’s official PMI, adds to evidence that the economy remains weak after the slowdown in Q1. Indeed, the headline figure probably overstates current... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will auto-enrolment cost companies? Companies have been reluctant to spend so far in this recovery. And legislation that is being phased in which requires them to contribute to their employees’ pensions could restrain them further... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industrial boom a mostly Asian story Industrial output in the emerging world has increased by a remarkable 30% in the past five years. Yet impressive growth at an aggregate level masks a wide variation in the performance of individual... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
