Global Economics Update Slowdown in China not a disaster for global economy Other than for some commodity exporters, the negative impact of lower growth in China on activity elsewhere should be fairly limited. What’s more, there are some offsetting positives including lower... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar. 13) The latest euro-zone monetary data showed little sign of an improvement in financial market conditions or a pick-up in provision of credit to the private sector. 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What do lower copper prices mean for Chile? The recent falls in global copper prices add further weight to our belief that GDP growth in Chile will be slower than most expect this year. Even so, this is unlikely to be a disaster for the economy... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and yields continue to flat-line IPD all-property rental values were flat in March, while initial yields remained steady at around 6.3%. We had expected the mild upswing in yields and downswing in capital values to come to an end in... 26th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Further weakness ahead The recent slump in the prices of most commodities mainly reflects worries about the near-term outlook for economic activity, rather than any deterioration in financial conditions. We expect global... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in consumption growth is here to stay Although consumption growth was respectable in the second half of last year, the further deceleration in income growth, along with the reported weakness of retail spending, suggests that it has slowed... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Buy-to-let lending will not be main beneficiary from FLS extension The extension of the Funding for Lending Scheme to include mortgage and housing credit corporations has led to some concerns that the buy-to-let sector will be the main beneficiary. But the link to... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deleveraging in Denmark: what lessons for other Nordics? Household spending in Denmark has barely recovered since its housing bubble burst in 2007 and there appears little respite ahead for households. With rising debt now fuelling housing booms in Sweden... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital inflows a worry in the Philippines Worries over capital inflows are a major concern for the central bank in the Philippines (BSP), which has been stepping up efforts to deter “hot money”. Although the BSP left its key overnight rate on... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather distortion fades Our econometric model suggests that, although the labour market has weakened since earlier in the year, conditions are not quite as bad as March’s Employment Report suggested. We expect a rebound in... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Balance marginally in favour of rate cut Having stated following its last meeting that it stood ready to act, it would be a big disappointment if the ECB did nothing at the forthcoming meeting on May 2nd. On balance, we think that an... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico set for a first half slowdown The softer tone of recent economic data, coupled with signs that support for the government’s reform programme may be fraying, have dented some of the optimism over the outlook for Mexico. Even so... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Struggling Polish economy to trigger further rate cut The weakness of the latest Polish inflation and activity data suggests that the central bank could resume its easing cycle. Admittedly, the MPC appears divided on whether further easing is needed. But... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation outlook remains subdued Emerging Market (EM) inflation fell back in March as temporary distortions related to the Chinese New Year dropped out of the annual comparison. Looking ahead, with underlying price pressures... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: a new era of weaker growth Following a decade of rapid growth, we think that the Russian economy is entering a new phase where much weaker growth becomes the norm. We believe the economy is unlikely to grow by much more than 2... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
