US Chart Pack Spring slowdown unlikely to be severe If the economy has entered another spring slowdown, we doubt it will be as severe as in recent years. Admittedly, the latest news on employment and retail sales suggests that the economy lost some... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar. 13) After the weaker than expected existing home sales figures, the increase in new home sales in March comes as a bit of a relief. The rise was only slight, but the indications are that activity will... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February's retail sales volumes, which were unchanged from the month before, suggest that first-quarter household consumption grew somewhat more slowly than in the previous quarter. This supports our... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is demand from buy-to-let investors about to boom? According to a recent survey, letting agents think that more landlords are currently buying property than at any time since the height of the buy-to-let (BTL) lending boom in late 2006. But landlords... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE not necessarily the end of the world Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US recovery due to more than just the energy boom The boom in domestic energy production and the indirect benefits to the rest of the economy from lower natural gas prices have played only a minor role in the US economy's strong performance compared... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Apr. & Q2) The latest CBI Industrial Trends survey has continued to present conflicting signals on the health of the manufacturing sector. All things considered, we would place more weight on its downbeat... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint concerns limit scope for aggressive easing in Hungary Falling inflation and an economy struggling to escape from recession mean that further interest rate cuts are likely in Hungary. But we remain of the view that currency concerns will prevent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Mar.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows that while GDP growth accelerated in Q1, the underlying pace of economic activity remained lacklustre. Moreover, the very latest data suggest that the recent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing PMIs signal demand remains lacklustre The decline in the flash manufacturing PMIs for China and the euro-zone in April, published today, triggered fresh falls in industrial commodity prices, sending copper to an 18-month low. We think... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Mar.) From the Chancellor’s perspective, March’s public finances data delivered some good news, with underlying borrowing for 2012/13 coming in below 2011/12’s level. But the big picture is that the... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) April’s euro-zone PMI survey provided another clear sign that a sustained economic recovery in the region is still some way off. 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr. 13) China once again disappointed expectations with today’s release of a downbeat April flash PMI. Nonetheless, with the labour market still looking healthy, we think policymakers will remain focused on... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Weak to the end of Q1 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy remained weak throughout Q1. The fading of a “leap year effect” made little difference: last quarter’s slowdown was not... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
