US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Despite the Fed’s continuing quantitative easing, the growth rates of the broad monetary aggregates have actually fallen over the past few months. The annual growth rate of our measure of the broadest... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Credibility now requires higher inflation forecasts The focus at Friday’s meeting of the Policy Board will be on the new GDP and inflation forecasts to be published in the Bank’s “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. Monetary policy itself was... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s problems are far from over The re-election of President Napolitano suggests that Italy could soon have a new government in place. But an end to the political deadlock will not resolve Italy’s deep economic problems. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar. 13) The small slide in existing home sales in March may add to concerns from some quarters that the housing recovery is hitting a soft patch. But look closely and there are a fair number of positives in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Austerity to undermine GDP regardless of Reinhart/Rogoff The exposure of errors in Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper on debt and growth does not affect our view that fiscal austerity will be a major drag on growth for some years to come, particularly in advanced... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal figures cast further doubt on austerity policies The news that the euro-zone budget deficit shrank again last year will be hailed as evidence by some that austerity is working. But the fact that most economies’ deficits have fallen by less than... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effects of a Chinese slowdown to vary across the region An economic slowdown in China is likely to drag on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, but the more important point is that the effects will vary from country-to-country. Zambia is probably the most... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's IMF deal underlines need for political consensus Tunisia’s IMF deal is a crucial step to helping the economy out of its post-revolution slump. But the agreement also underlines the need for political consensus in the Arab Spring countries in order... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs continue to struggle The recent weakness of the economic data across the emerging world has been exacerbated by calendar effects. Even so, our EM GDP Tracker reveals a broader trend of weakening activity, particularly in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus GOEF crisis enters new phase Looming deadlines for stricken German open-ended funds to complete their liquidation processes – or hand over remaining assets to their respective custodian banks – mean that the supply of property... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus? What fiscal stimulus? Most commentators appear to have taken official estimates of the scale of the fiscal stimulus in 2013 entirely at face value. At the same time, they are ignoring the elephant in the room – the planned... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank overly optimistic about economic outlook The Bank of Canada and, to a lesser extent, the International Monetary Fund still remain overly optimistic about Canada's economic growth outlook. The IMF has acknowledged, however, that the negative... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Lower commodity prices to help most Asian economies Commodity prices have fallen sharply over the past week as investors have taken a more downbeat view of global growth prospects. Although weak global demand is likely to weigh on Asia during the rest... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in energy prices could provide much-needed boost The slump in energy prices suggests that second-quarter GDP growth might not be as bad as we had initially feared when the incoming data for March proved to be unexpectedly weak. 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
