Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation to trigger further Polish rate cut The weakness of the latest inflation data across Central Europe should allow further loosening of monetary policy, even in Poland, where we have now pencilled in a 25bp rate cut later this year. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro's victory could herald period of instability in Venezuela Despite hopes for a new pragmatism, there is little evidence to suggest that Nicolas Maduro’s victory in yesterday’s Venezuelan presidential election will herald the dawn of an era of improved... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A closer look at South Africa's current account vulnerabilities The sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in 2012 has grabbed most of the headlines, but the more worrying issue is the deterioration in the quality of capital inflows that are... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Drop in inflation does not clear the way for a policy rate cut Last month’s drop in India’s wholesale price inflation will have come as a relief to policymakers who have been trying, with limited success, to lower inflation over the last three years. Market... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilient Gulf unlikely to boost resource-poor economies The Gulf economies are on course to grow at a decent pace this year, but the boost to their resource-poor neighbours is likely to be limited. Trade and investment links are surprisingly small. Instead... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hopes for sustained recovery fade Today’s weak GDP data shocked consensus expectations. The most striking detail is the degree to which growth remains dependent on an overstretched property sector and on policy support. 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing demand likely to soften further The year-on-year drop in existing home sales supports our view that a potentially hard housing market correction is underway. Assuming that home sales continue to trend lower this year, then this will... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold becomes a traders’ market The trigger for the slump in the gold price since Friday appears to have been aggressive selling by speculative traders, rather than any change in the fundamental drivers. Gold has also been caught up... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on Slovenia to intensify further Recent events have underlined our view that the Slovenian government will struggle to finance itself this year despite the small size (relative to GDP) of its troubled banks and public debt. To avoid... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the annual spring swoon? The run of weak economic data reports, which continued last week with the news of an unexpected decline in March retail sales, has led to speculation that the US economy is enduring yet another spring... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should we worry about rising JGB yields? After initially declining, JGB yields are now higher than they were before the Bank of Japan announced its bold monetary easing. This result is not as perverse as it may seem, nor is it necessarily... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts slump half way done The downward trend in housing starts is not over. While home builders continue to 'adjust' to softening housing demand, the oversupply of new unoccupied housing units are likely to become more... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers waking up? High street spending has put in a reasonable performance since the start of the year. And there are at least some conditions in place that might allow the momentum in consumer spending to build... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The BoJ can’t do the ECB’s job for it The drop in peripheral euro-zone bond yields following the Bank of Japan’s announcement that it is set to expand its quantitative easing programme dramatically has further relieved the near-term... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore to keep monetary policy tight The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision to leave policy settings unchanged on Friday was no great surprise, given persistently high inflation. Despite the likelihood that growth will remain... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
