Emerging Markets Economics Update China's economic rebound failing to save others Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions indicate sluggish growth ahead The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that, while slightly more businesses expect future sales to pick-up over the next 12 months, investment intentions have been scaled back and hiring... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum prices to rise even without OPEC-style cartel Recent speculation about an OPEC-style producer cartel for the platinum group metals (chiefly platinum, palladium and rhodium) is unlikely to come to much. However, falling production due to cost... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus America is not drowning in debt Contrary to widespread belief, America is not broke. Our calculations suggest that total domestic net worth was as much as 550% of GDP in 2011. America is not deep in debt to foreigners either. Net... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei? The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb. 13) February’s German industrial production figures suggest that the economy’s engine of growth is still just about ticking over, but only very slowly. 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market rally reverses course Most Emerging European stock markets and currencies have weakened over the past month on the back of the Cypriot crisis and fears of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone. This serves as a timely... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian rate-cutting cycle over We suspect that the interest rate cutting cycle in Colombia has come to an end. Admittedly, to the extent that there are changes in the next 6-9 months, rates are more likely to fall than rise. But... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus The winners and losers from China's rise China has come to play a key role as an assembly hub at the centre of increasingly sophisticated supply chain networks. For the rest of Asia, the main winners from this process have been those... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shrinking workforce shouldn’t matter much to investors China passed a milestone last year as its working age population fell for the first time in the modern era. Demographic change will have a profound impact on the long-run trajectory of China’s economy... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing demand dashing hopes of spring rebound The Spring housing season is just getting underway but, unfortunately, hopes of a rebound in housing demand don't look promising. The affordability argument based on low mortgage rates isn't enticing... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter unlikely to be as good as the first It is impressive that in the first quarter, when households were hit by higher taxes and everyone had to contend with a spike in gasoline prices, GDP probably grew at an annualised rate of at least 3... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB about to unveil another bazooka? Despite ECB President Mario Draghi’s assurance last week that the Bank “stands ready to act”, he gave very little indication of what support it might offer. An imminent interest rate cut is possible... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
