Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further aid should help to stave off Egyptian default Continued delays to Egypt’s prospective IMF deal have raised the possibility of a default on its FX debt. A team from the Fund is due in Cairo tomorrow to discuss a financing package, but even if a... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Italy shrug off its political deadlock? The recent news from Italy suggests that it could still be some time before a new government is in place. While there is little sign, for now at least, that this has damaged business and consumer... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s household borrowing figures suggested that, while mortgage lending continues to struggle, the recent signs of life evident in the consumer sector may be translating into a pick-up in... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The further rise in euro-zone unemployment in February, coupled with the low level of March’s manufacturing PMI, confirmed the underlying weakness of the economy. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing recovery stutters The latest batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe shows that activity slowed across the board last month. Activity remains strongest in Turkey. But the weakness of the Central European... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb. 13) The largest drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase for a year provides further evidence that poor fundamentals are outweighing Government efforts to support the housing market. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb. 13) In net terms, lending to the commercial property sector was negative for the fifteenth consecutive month in February. Yet progress in reducing lenders’ exposure to the property sector is slow. Thus... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS Report on Manuf. (Mar.) & Mortgage Approvals (Feb.) The weakness of the CIPS manufacturing survey in March suggests that the economy is continuing to make little progress towards rebalancing and has kept the threat of a so-called triple-dip recession... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing recovery slows The latest PMI surveys suggest that Latin America’s manufacturing recovery lost a little steam in the final month of Q1. At a country level, Mexico continues to outperform Brazil. 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy turning the corner The slowdown in the Turkish economy in Q4 of last year appears to be the trough, and our GDP tracker suggests that growth has picked up to around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2013. Nonetheless, the... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 13) It is tempting to blame the decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-month low of 51.3 in March, from 54.2, on the faltering global economic recovery. However, that theory is hard to square... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Private sector forecasters still overly optimistic The latest survey of private sector forecasters, included in the recent Federal Budget, shows that they remain overly optimistic about the prospects for economic growth in 2013 and beyond. Ignoring... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market calm provides limited comfort The relative calmness of the financial markets during the Cyprus episode and after the Italian election might be seen as an indication that the worst of the euro-zone crisis is now behind us. But it... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US depositors unlikely to suffer same fate as Cypriots The Cypriot bank bailout, which imposed losses on bondholders and large depositors, is never likely to be repeated in the US. For a start, while the Cypriot banking system is equivalent to a massive... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines - no longer the "sick man of Asia" Fitch Ratings became the first major rating agency to grant the Philippines investment grade status when it upgraded the country last Wednesday. Other agencies are likely to follow soon. This Weekly... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan likely to signal only an anaemic recovery The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for March (to be released on Monday) will probably show that large manufacturers thought business conditions were less negative in the first quarter and might even... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
